Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 5

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket 


BIG PICTURE 

Ok everyone…just breathe. 

Between daily White House press conferences and earnings season, we seem to have our hands full. Between those moments, I can’t say much is going on. I can’t remember the last time I have watched a range bar not move for almost two hours. If you enjoy watching paint dry or grass grow, we are in your kind of market. Truth be told, pick any day and you’ll find some micro pocket of trend. That’s all dandy for the day trader like myself, but where is this market overall headed at this point. I know! Half of you want this to drop and the other half are ready to push this higher. My long term portfolio loves this! Yet, all I hear all day long is how the “permabears” are crying out that the sky is falling as we push higher highs.

So what precaution can you take on the long term and what to look for in the market next week?

First, let’s expect continued news bits from Washington that may send mini-ripples throughout the market on any given day. Next up, part two of our F.A.N.G. stocks that may be the catalyst the Nasdaq for it’s next move. Week four earnings gave the NQ enough stamina to remain at the highs. We also close out the month with the FOMC announcement and money managers balancing their mega portfolios.

Now that the YM hit the 20K and markets seem to be content at these levels without any serious pullback as of yet, my concern is over the buildup of bearish sentiment in the market and permabear influence. All it will take is one “not so good” news bit and the cascade is initiated (keep an eye on the WH admin travel ban and China military provocations). Permabears will then inform you, that they told you so. until then, daily observations of the intraday trend are relentless in picking up off the lows and bringing back into value. Technical signs for me of a market not ready to let the “bears” out to play.

As a crumb trader you are at the whim of using your intraday technical charts to leave the emotion aside and be ready for the market to move in either direction. Precautions may include moving stops up and watching internals as in the ADX or the MML levels on multiple time frames. So is this the opportune time to short the market indices? 

Technical momentum probability still remains at this point to leads us higher “with caution” on the bigger pic in my humble opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to shake things up downside as stated over the last several weeks. I state with caution as seen in the charts below we are at a technical momentum decision time based on my strategy that puts price action in a stall at the highs. 

No harm in holding here as we slide sideways and rest assured, I will be ready to alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside.

Watch for AMZN, APPL and FB earnings this week,  The VIX open interest strike prices of 21-23 for Feb15 is something to continue to monitor.


Outlook Video: 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, CL, GC, 6J, 6E


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Weekly, Daily; 4hour

 2017-01-29-nq-tmo


MML Levels (NQ)

mml-nq-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5104

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

2017-01-29-es-tmo


MML Levels (ES)

mml-es-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2280.5

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

2017-01-29-ym-tmo


MML Levels (YM)

mml-ym-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 19882

Lowest Open Gap: 15924



IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 28.18%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)
  • January, 2017 Action
    • Sold off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Buy Point: 69.97
  • Gain: 8.29%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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