Weekly Wrap (#52.21)

  • No live trade video highlight of the week
  • Weekly number recap out of 11 potential setups this week
  • Weekly Wrap – trend on the charts
  • The last word focusing on Wins and Losses ratio
  • Joining our community of like minded traders
  • Celebrating today: Make up your Mind Day

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   


Looking back one day @ a time…..

Good trading is always going back over the trading day and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the setup is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets currently trading: MNQ, MCL

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment.


Live Trade Video: N/A


By the Numbers…..

We wrap up the week with a total of up to 11 potential setups with a 91% win ratio on 50+ tick moves. The lowest at 17 points and the highest being the 263 point move to close out the week. While the decision to go to a 50-35 may offer earlier entries, it also has several more false setups. 

Our three week total and wrapping up 2021 on the new setup brings us to 66 setups. The only losses counted are in setups that were valid on ALL accounts and simply didn’t run 50 ticks. The lowest amount of points was 6 which if looking for 20 ticks per move would give us a 100% win ratio. With 66 setups and 64 of those 50+ tick winners gave us a 97% setup win ratio,

Keep in mind, this is in a 24 hour window and in no way means a profit if the trader bailed early or stop taken out because it was too close to the entry. What is significant is that if the trader took the trade, 97% of the setups would have moved at least the 50 ticks if the trade was placed.

Let’s hope that 2022 gives us similar numbers as we reset the performance results and throw in a bit of Fed rates, inflation, earnings and whatever comes the market way. 


Trend Highlights

Setups reflective of highest probability trend based on price action crossover of the T3 moving average in sync with momentum indicators and using 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screen share room and randomly posted online.

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Wrapping up Week 52 and 2021 (not a big fan of odd numbers) price action from the long term MML lows to weekly overbought and downside to close out the week on our 24 hour MML. All time high (ATH) remains above as the SPY/DOW were able to achieve this last week. Looking downside, we need to break 16132 to find next support down at 15937. Upside is clear all the way up to ATH if able to break above 16406 at Major S/R. As always, intraday trend will set up the momentum to reach either of these levels. 

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The Last Word….my 3 sense

Win/Loss ratios.

It is often I get a message or tweet asking me for my win/loss ratios in a day/week or over the course of the year. I am typically hesitant to wave that banner as it indicates that all our setups are going to be identical in how we mange the trade be it the entry and exit. I can’t speak much for the last year with some time away from the market, however it gave me thought to perhaps keep the stats on every setup on the chart whether I took the setup or not. With a fresh start and updated strategy, surely I thought what harm would it be to keep such numbers to prove not to those out there, but to myself that the strategy works for me and in hopes to share with other Jedi traders.

In the end, as seen above in the stats, the strategy works on the higher intraday time frame. I will never say that ALL setups are going to work out as trader error is common and delivers us a loss where everything appeared to be a winner. If anything is true, trader error has clearly been my reason for losing and not the setup itself. Believing in the setup in my trading plan is what I look for. If it doesn’t look right, I don’t take it regardless if it worked out in the end to be a successful setup. Sometimes even trader hesitancy holds me back. That does not mean the setup is not valid. If only I had ALGO wiring!

So you see, this is why the banner of wins/losses doesn’t have to work to convince one that it has a good probability of success. All you have to do is look at your own record of wins/losses versus the setups and see if you are in the ballpark. With a three week stats number of 97% setup win ratio and a personal profit win ratio of 90%, I would say I am in the vicinity. I didn’t come close to 63 setups and I did miss some of the long trends. I’m all good with that, but that doesn’t mean someone in our trading room didn’t get what I may have missed.

That’s enough of a win for me.

Current Chartbook Template – Money Flow now seen at the bottom

If this strategy is of interest to you, please join us daily in the trading room with access to the chartbook templates and trading with like minded traders. Information may be found here.


Celebrating Today

Make up your Mind Day…On December 31 every year, people across the United States observe Make Up Your Mind Day, deciding on some important resolutions for the coming year. It is an important day to encourage people to review their goals, achievements, and progress, and then come up with better strategies to achieve them in the new year. By formally making a set of resolutions on this day, people are more likely to stay committed to them throughout the year.

Information Credit: NationalDayToday; Image Credit: Timeanddate.com

Gnomes Image Credit: RinesInspiredDesigns @etsy


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

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