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As simple as I can make it…
Keeping with the same core strategy, whether it be S3/T3/MML/Fibonacci, adapting to a changing market is essential. The classroom instructor who continues to teach the same curriculum 25 years without updating or modifying their material or delivery will be obsolete to their members; the students. Yes, of course, math is math but the delivery has to change based on the population receiving the material. Thus too, the charts/indicators need to capture opportunity and probability of success. If you haven’t figured it by now, indicators are a mere crutch to make us feel like we have an edge. Truth be told, movers of the market aren’t watching any one of those studies to make the next move. We are in a market, as MrTopStep likes to quote, “These are not the markets of our father.” Rings true as good news sends prices down and economic data that is poor sends markets up.
Several traders have come forward and shared that my charts at times can be too confusing. I’ll admit I have added bars to the bottom of my chart and taken away as in the end, they truly are all telling me the same thing.
If you want to trade intraday, the mindset has to change. Long term is another game in itself. I choose to keep it simplified with Jason Kelly’s strategy or perhaps you enjoy a CAN SLIM attitude. Either way, none of them are wrong. When it comes to intraday, I have adapted and modified to the times. Futures trading truly is not the same anymore. Roll back to post 2008 crash and intraday swings were 600 YM swings (just check out old posts) where a morning entry could be for the entire day. We simply don’t have those days as frequent. Whether the belief is that markets are FED driven and ALGO supported, it doesn’t matter. There are two basic questions you need to answer. What puts you in a trade and what takes you out?
The TradingFibz most current chart above and the steps that will follow, will hopefully give you a foundation for your charts that show probability in the intraday market. You are always welcome to view my S3/T3/MML/Fibonacci individual strategy pages which has a wealth of ideas. This page is for those that wanted to keep it as simple as possible. I could make it as easy as candles and a moving average.
If this strategy is too complex, I wish you well in finding what works for you.
Core Intraday Scalping Strategy – Update 2021
The following strategy breaks down the TradingFibz probability to its simplest form based on the 4 futures indices. Choice of globex trading, other markets, time frames will require modification of simplified trading plan below.
- Time to trade: 8:30am-10:30pm
- Market of Choice: eMicro/emini NQ
- Time Frame: Flex Renko/HeikinAshi.
- Economic Awareness: Which FED speaker talking/Earnings/Economic Data
What indicators are on the chart?
- Heikin Ashi Flex Renko candles – indicator candles of trend
- T3 moving average
- Daily support levels (Daily Gap/Pivot, Previous day low/high, Today’s open, Globex Hi/Lo)
- Optional: Moving Average cloud overlay, MML, Fibonacci Price Projection
- Optional: 5 bars at bottom: Price in relation to T3, Slope of T3, 50/144 EMA trend
What puts you in a trade?
- Setup bar: Price action closes over moving average of choice
- Signal bar: Bar that follows setup bar has to close at least 50% beyond
- Entry bar: Once signal bar is confirmed, market order for however many ticks you want to scalp; In/Out
What takes you out of a trade?
- Limit order at exit point.
- If using MML/Fibonacci levels, option to put limit order at key level
- If following trend on Heikin Ashi bars over moving average, once price closes over or slope of moving average changes; exit trade.
Price action has crossed over the moving average (setup bar). Signal bar is confirmed on solid trending Heikin Ashi bar closing at least 50% above previous bar. Entry bar – take the trade. If scalping (S3) for 10 ticks and daily goal is 20 ticks, trading two contracts, In and Out. If the setup is primed for a longer term hold (T3), apply strategy to remove contracts at given points/levels and manage for maximum ticks.
What makes the probability of this move successful? Trading time is when volume is most likely the greatest. Three to five bars at the bottom are in trend to the upside depending on chart. Price action is not caught at the VWAP and has broken free of the cloud overlay (this is not ichimoku) on the signal bar. The slope of the moving average is positive.
Can you spot why this chart is even a better setup?
Like any trading plan, there are setups where you may want to avoid the signal bar as price action is right at the VWAP, Globex Hi or Lo or any level you may watch. Let it go and simply wait for the next setup.
Sample Ideal Setup
What makes this chart below the ideal setup based on all the information above?