Futures Index Trend (10.13.19)

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. To avoid the noise, shifting to a SWING POSITION, can avoid that by shifting to higher time frame chart using the same intraday technical indicators and remaining in the trade that much longer. This does not reflect long term positions and other strategies used for long term growth. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.        

Sunday – October 13, 2019      

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Market Momentum 

VTI

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FFTY

  • Current IBD Outlook:  Uptrend Under Pressure
  • IBD ETF strategy: 50% invested
  • IBD Psychological Market Chart indicators – UPTREND

    • Bulls vs Bears: when the percentage of bears crosses above the bulls, a market bottom is more likely.
    • Margin Debt: indicator will exceed 55% when optimism runs rampant on Wall Street and investors are heavily borrowing money during the late stages of a bull market.
    • High Low Ratio: indicator shows its first up day after crossing below 0.5, look for a short-term bottom in an intermediate correction during a bull market.

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ES: Uptrend 

  • MML Momentum Short-Term: Uptrend
  • MML Momentum Mid-Term: Consolidation
  • MML Momentum Long-Term: Uptrend 
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Uptrend
  • Moving Average Trend: 50>10>200
  • VWAP: Price action Above
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: 2937

Current Status: 5 bar confirmation on breakout of VWAP off short term MML support and mid term Major S/R to mid term Resistance.

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NQ: Uptrend 

  • MML Momentum Short-Term: Uptrend
  • MML Momentum Mid-Term: Consolidation
  • MML Momentum Long-Term: Consolidation
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Uptrend
  • Moving Average Trend: 10>50>200
  • VWAP: Price action at Above
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: 7750

Current Status:  Five bars trending on breakout of VWAP and MML short term support at resistance. 


Jason Kelly Recap/Insight

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady three percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

  • Bullish chartists see a second bottoming pattern for the S&P 500.
  • The initial phase of a US-China trade pact came into view. Some kind of deal this quarter continues looking likely.
  • The EU and UK will intensify Brexit discussions in a bid to craft a smooth separation by the end of this month, or during a short extension.
  • Banks won another round of regulation rollback from the Federal Reserve. They will eventually get back enough dynamite to blow up the financial system again.
  • The Fed will resume buying financial instruments, a move that looks like new QE but is not.
  • US consumer sentiment is much stronger than expected.
  • Famous university endowments lost to us, the S&P 500, and even a basic 70/30 mix of stocks and bonds in the year ended on June 30.
  • Bond yields rose, erasing the yield curve inversion, which should mean the recession is called off, but bears see only falling bond prices.
  • Fine by us: We’re entirely in stocks, but will eventually move money back into bonds. If we can do so at lower prices and higher yields, great.
  • Stocks are not overextended. Since January 2018, the S&P 500 is up only 3.4%.

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@Educofin Heikin Ashi Trends

  • SP500 Daily S-Oscillator: Positive Signs.
  • SP500 Yearly Heikin Ashi Trend: Bullish. A New year high.
  • SP500 Trend:
    • Short-term: Positive
    • Medium-term: Top
    • Long-term: Resistance with negative bias

Key Events this week

  • Economic Indicators: Beige Book, Housing, Retail, Industrial Production
  • Earnings:
    • Netflix, IBM, United Healthcare, Johnson and Johnson
    • Big Banks
  • BREXIT, BREXIT, BREXIT


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

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