Futures Index Trend (9.22.19)

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. To avoid the noise, shifting to a SWING POSITION, can avoid that by shifting to higher time frame chart using the same intraday technical indicators and remaining in the trade that much longer. This does not reflect long term positions and other strategies used for long term growth. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.        

Sunday – September 22, 2019    

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Market Momentum 

VTI

  • Current IBD Outlook:  Market in Confirmed Uptrend
  • IBD ETF strategy: 100% invested
  • IBD Psychological Market Chart indicators – UPTREND

    • Bulls vs Bears: when the percentage of bears crosses above the bulls, a market bottom is more likely.
    • Margin Debt: indicator will exceed 55% when optimism runs rampant on Wall Street and investors are heavily borrowing money during the late stages of a bull market.
    • High Low Ratio: indicator shows its first up day after crossing below 0.5, look for a short-term bottom in an intermediate correction during a bull market.

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ES: Uptrend (10/50ma cross)

  • MML Momentum Long Term: Uptrend 
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Uptrend – watch for reset
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Uptrend Indecision – monitor for trending candles
  • 10/50ma Trend: Uptrend
  • VWAP: Price action Above
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: None – new contract.

Current Status: Two bar pullback. with 50/144 cross upside with indecision HA bars at MML overbought

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NQ: Uptrend (10/50ma)

  • MML Momentum Long Term: Uptrend
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Uptrend
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Downtrend
  • 10/50ma Trend: Uptrend
  • VWAP: Price action at Support
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: None – new contract.

Current Status:  Four bar pullback at VWAP support with trending HA bars downside at MML upper resistance. Short term MML pullback to major support.


Jason Kelly Recap/Insight

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady three percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

  • Our small-cap breakout hit a pause just one week after appearing.
  • The Federal Reserve cut its key rate by a quarter of a point, and is prepared to reactivate quantitative easing.
  • A Chinese farming delegation canceled trips to Montana and Nebraska, raising skepticism around next month’s trade talks.
  • US industrial production, manufacturing, existing home sales, and employment remain strong.
  • A ballyhooed pivot from growth to value looks more like a renewed interest in cyclical stocks to me—consistent with improving economic data.
  • Citigroup’s US Economic Surprise Index went from -70 to +20 in the past month.
  • An early defense against automation is appearing: block its dominance with worker protection laws. We anticipated this.

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@Educofin Heikin Ashi Trends

  • SP500 Weekly S-Oscillator: Getting Weaker
  • SP500 Yearly Heikin Ashi Trend: Bullish. A New year high.
  • SP500 Trend:
    • Short-term: @resistance and weaker
    • Medium-term: top
    • Long-term: resistance..

Key Events this week

  • Economic Indicators: GDP
  • Earnings:
    • Nike


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

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