Futures Index Trend (9.15.19)

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. To avoid the noise, shifting to a SWING POSITION, can avoid that by shifting to higher time frame chart using the same intraday technical indicators and remaining in the trade that much longer. This does not reflect long term positions and other strategies used for long term growth. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.        

Sunday – September 15, 2019    

————————-

Market Momentum 

VTI
  • Current IBD Outlook:  Market in Confirmed Uptrend
  • IBD ETF strategy: 100% invested
  • IBD Psychological Market Chart indicators – UPTREND
    • Bulls vs Bears: when the percentage of bears crosses above the bulls, a market bottom is more likely.
    • Margin Debt: indicator will exceed 55% when optimism runs rampant on Wall Street and investors are heavily borrowing money during the late stages of a bull market.
    • High Low Ratio: indicator shows its first up day after crossing below 0.5, look for a short-term bottom in an intermediate correction during a bull market.

——————————-

ES: Uptrend (10/50ma cross)

SP 500 Futures
  • MML Momentum Long Term: Uptrend 
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Uptrend – watch for reset
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Uptrend – monitor for trending candles
  • 10/50ma Trend: Uptrend
  • 20/50ma Trend: Downtrend Pullback
  • VWAP: Price action Above
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: 2944

Current Status: Five bar confirmation upside with trending HA bars at MML overbought

——————————-

NQ: Uptrend (10/50ma)

Nasdaq Futures
  • MML Momentum Long Term: Uptrend
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Uptrend 
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Uptrend 
  • 20/50ma Trend: Downtrend Pullback
  • 10/50ma Trend: Uptrend
  • VWAP: Price action Above
  • 200ma: Price action Above

Setup: 7755

Current Status:  Two bar pullback forming on 5 bar confirmation upside with trending HA bars at MML upper resistance. Short term MML pullback to major support.


Jason Kelly Recap/Insight

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady three percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

  • The breakout from August’s trading range continues.
  • Small caps are leading the way higher, as predicted.
  • A fourth-quarter US-China trade deal still looks possible, but it might be a partial one.
  • The ECB is stimulating again.
  • Mortgages are cheap, inflation is rising, and retail sales are good.
  • The 30 down rule is working. Both MVV and TQQQ are higher than they were at the April sell signal.
  • A rotation from growth to value happened early last week, but we are indifferent. We prefer entire indexes to growth/value subsets.
  • Bond funds fell, and bears say they’ll fall more. We’ve navigated this in the past. Our plans use bond funds in a way that makes their price fluctuation unimportant to us.
  • Apple is focused on services. Its devices look frozen in place for now. This might be boring, but it’s growing the business.

————————————-

@Educofin Heikin Ashi Trends

  • SP500 Weekly S-Oscillator: Upside Potential
  • SP500 Yearly Heikin Ashi Trend: Bullish. A New year high.
  • SP500 Trend:
    • Short-term: targeting the resistance.
    • Medium-term: positive, at haDelta historical highs.
    • Long-term: resistance. 

Key Events this week

  • Economic Indicators: FOMC, Housing, Quad Witch
  • Earnings:
    • Fedex
  • Watch for oil volatility


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s