Futures Index Trend (8.12.19)

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. To avoid the noise, shifting to a SWING POSITION, can avoid that by shifting to higher time frame chart using the same intraday technical indicators and remaining in the trade that much longer. This does not reflect long term positions and other strategies used for long term growth. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   

Monday – August 12, 2019    

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Big Picture: Technical setups below vs China volatility is the key here. China-US trade/currency war is the thorn that’s keeping us moving forward. Downside volatility could persist for a while, so stay mentally prepared for it. Patience is the key for it to be resolved. Swing position in both directions for the noise in the bigger trend on 3Sig rebalance.

Events: Top Chinese Stocks reports, Walmart earnings

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Market Momentum: Uptrend Correction (20/50ma cross)

SP 500 Futures
  • MML Momentum Long Term: Uptrend
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Uptrend
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Downtrend
  • 20/50ma Trend: Correction 
  • 200ma: Price action above

Setup: 2900 Heikin Ashi trending bar entry on uptrend. Option to have entered off MML support (2812.5) as long as 20/50ma remain in trend upside – have now crossed. Early setup on downtrend, would wait for 50ma slope downturn.

Trade Management: Two contract setup looking for 1 off at 2968.75. If stop was at Major S/R – trade over. Wait for follow through of next daily bar.

Current Status: Five bar confirmation downside with trending HA bars. Daily indecision bar x 4 days. Price action unable to break 61.8. 20/50ma cross – looking for averages to be in slope downside to confirm direction. 

Outlook: Above 200ma, we remain in an uptrend and with concern over 20/50ma trend as lines converge and have now crossed but need to be sloping together to move from correction to downside. Move higher will require break above fib and trending HA bar on lower time frame on left chart. Downside move look for reversal of the same under VWAP and trending HA bars – still in the zone. 

Reversal in Trend: Confirmation will be 5 bar confirmation upside and above VWAP. 

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Market Momentum: Correction (20/50ma)

Nasdaq Futures
  • MML Momentum Long Term: Downtrend
  • MML Momentum Short Term: Downtrend
  • Heikin Ashi Bar Momentum: Downtrend forming
  • 20/50ma Trend: Correction 
  • 200ma: Price action above

Setup: None

Trade Management: None

Current Status: Five bar confirmation downside forming with trending HA bars. Daily indecision bar x 4 days. Price action bounces off 200ma and short term MML support.

Outlook: 20/50 remains in correction after crossing, looking for slope trend downside. Looking for setup under Daily Major S/R on trending HA bars

Reversal in Trend: Confirmation will be 5 bar confirmation downside and under VWAP. 


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

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