Futures Index Trend (8.11.19)

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. To avoid the noise, shifting to a SWING POSITION, can avoid that by shifting to higher time frame chart using the same intraday technical indicators and remaining in the trade that much longer. This does not reflect long term positions and other strategies used for long term growth. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   

Sunday – August 11, 2019    

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Big Picture: Technical setups below vs China volatility is the key here. China-US trade/currency war is the thorn that’s keeping us moving forward. Downside volatility could persist for a while, so stay mentally prepared for it. Patience is the key for it to be resolved. Swing position in both directions for the noise in the bigger trend on 3Sig rebalance.

Events: Top Chinese Stocks reports, Walmart earnings

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Market Momentum: Uptrend (till 20/50ma cross)

SP 500 Futures

Setup: 2900 Heikin Ashi trending bar. Option to have entered off MML support (2812.5) as long as 20/50ma remain in trend upside.

Trade Management: Stop at Major S/R up to B/E. Two contract setup looking for 1 off at 2968.75. 

Current Status: Five bar confirmation upside with trending HA bars. Daily indecision bar x 2 days. Price action bounces off 200ma and short term MML support up to 61.8% fib level. Daily 20/50ma at crossroads.

Outlook: As long as price action remains above 200ma and no 20/50 cross, we remain in an uptrend. Concern over 20/50ma trend as lines converge. Move higher will require break above fib and trending HA bar on lower time frame on left chart. Downside move look for reversal of the same under VWAP and trending HA bars. Not as clean of a setup as prior upside move seen below from MML low. 

SP 500 Futures

Reversal in Trend: Confirmation will be 5 bar confirmation downside and under VWAP. 

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Market Momentum: Uptrend (till 20/50ma cross)

Nasdaq Futures

Setup: 7616 Heikin Ashi trending bar.

Trade Management: Stop at Major S/R up to B/E. Two contract setup looking for 1 off at 7812.5. Option to take 1 off at short term MML overbought, 7734.5. 

Current Status: Five bar confirmation upside with trending HA bars. Daily indecision bar x 2 days. Price action bounces off 200ma and short term MML support.

Outlook: Retested VWAP upside as predicted and broke through. 20/50 remains in correction with no cross as of yet. Trend remains upside.

Reversal in Trend: Confirmation will be 5 bar confirmation downside and under VWAP. 


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.     

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