Current Technical Trend…
- Daily VXX (VIX Volatility) momentum downtrend
- Weekly uptrend momentum stalling
- Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of momentum (Up or Down)
- Momentum uptrend /ADX flat
- Advances-Decliners/INDU in sync
- IBD Psychological Market Chart indicators – UPTREND
- Indices on pullback to Major S/R and under 50ma. RTY exception.
- Lowest Open Gaps on Futures
- ES: 1589 | NQ: 3864.75 | RTY: 1462.1 | YM: 14745
Market Momentum – ETF’s
- Current IBD Outlook: Market Confirmed in UPTREND
- IBD ETF strategy: 100% invested
- Current Trend in key ETF Indices may be FOUND HERE
Resume in week 18
Key Events in the market this week
- USA: Earnings, Housing, GDP
- Q2 earnings:
- Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Google, Microsoft
- Caterpillar, Ebay, Paypal
- Big Oil reports
- Defense reports
- Chipmakers report
My 3 Cents…
Low volume and turn-around in week 16 back downside as the key moving averages fail to gain momentum in sync upside. The 200ma continues to be the strong conduit for market draw and bounce back upside in a bigger pic consolidation. Just enough of a correction to keep us within shouting distance of the highs. Technically, the momentum has stalled in favor of the downtrend as price action will either break to the upside and regain synchronous traction on the moving average sot take us higher, or we retest the 200ma once again. either way. For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for major earnings to move the market and respond at the 50ma. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.
Big Picture Market Pulse: Consolidation at the key moving averages (10/50ema) as they are out of sync. ADX momentum downside on Indices as VIX volatility stalls and turns downside.
Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Quarterly re-balance in Q3 2018.
Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.
- Outlook: Bull Clues
For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a steady 3-percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters.
The trade war issue is so far a small potatoes affair, and it should be mentioned widely and loudly that it hasn’t even happened yet and probably never will.
- Quarterly Re-Balance: BUY index account; SELL bond shares
- 22.6% gain for 2017
- 0.3% Gain for 2018
- SP-500 is still inside a descending triangle with a bearish character.
- The formation of a H&S right shoulder is in progress on several daily charts.
- The monthly trailing-stops are under attack. Their violations will a serious negative signal. The rest is noise.
Moors & Cabot
- Unfortunately a large number of companies in the US are Zombie companies. The cascading effect will eventually cause stocks and high yield debt markets to decline.
As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.
Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.
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