Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 10.18

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


MML Charts

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.            

Charts of Interest

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

———————————————

Current Technical Trend…   

  • Week 09 recap and trend charts
  • Indices pullback under 50ma/ 10ma remains under 50.
  • Open Gaps above/below; none formed in week 08
  • VIX levels at mid 19’s after peaking to 25 midweek
  • Industrial/Transports 
    • Industrials: UPTREND under pressure; Transports: UPTREND under Pressure
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down)

  • FANG/FAAMG represented by the FDN (ETF); XLK Tech sector ETF
  • Tech Sector remains in UPTREND

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

  • NYAD (NYSE Advance – Decliners)/INDU
  • A/D Up/Index down: Out of sync: market indecision

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index (RED line)
    • Metals, Softs, Energy, Grains, Metals, Livestock, Petroleum   
    • Bloomberg Commodity index (BCOM) index weakening
      • Grains, Softs above

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

  • FFTY (IBD 50); UPTREND PULLBACK
  • VTI Total Stock Market Index; UPTREND PULLBACK
  • Uptrend Momentum: (1/31/18):  FEZ QTD return up 6.95% in comparison to SPY 5.73% 
  • Current IBD Outlook: Market UPTREND under Pressure
    • ETF strategy: 50% invested

——————————

Video Outlook:

———————————————

Key events in the market this week

  • USA: Earnings, Fed Speakers, ADP, Beige Book, Non-Farm Payrolls, Contract rollover begins
  • Q4 earnings:
    • Target
    • Discount Stores
    • Top Chinese stocks
    • Aerospace

  • Indices pulling back under 10/50ma’s
  • 10 period moving averages holding under 50 on ES/YM/RTY
  • NQ/XLK/FDN (F.A.N.G. ETF) strong uptrend, Moving averages 10>50>200
  • UUP – Dollar index momentum BIG PIC remains downside 
  • VTI/FFTY consolidation in uptrend
  • VXX (VIX ETF) volatile, remain in partial uptrend
  • NYAD/INDU momentum divergent: Indecision
  • IYJ/IYT in sync in DOWNTREND
  • Downside Open Gaps remain open to be closed

My 3 Cents

I’ll keep it simple.

Unless price action can hold above the 10ema, and the 10ema doesn’t close above the 50ma, downside open gaps, Long term MML levels and the 200ma seem more probable at this point.

With contract rollover looming, economic data coming out and non-farm payroll as the we await the next FOMC meeting, with VIX levels above 15 and peaking around 25, higher time frames and patience for your technical setups is the most prudent position you could be in. 

Pay heed to each side of the aisle as there are just as many calling for the upside as to the downside. Tech still remains strong and if  able will pull the remainder of the market with. For now, consolidation at the tops seems to be the call as we may just waffle in between the highs and 200ma before we either make new highs or project for lower lows. Truth is, no one knows and only those in the end that make the call and who get it right will wave their flag, the rest will hide under a rock.

So do yourself a favor. If your an intraday player, always be ready in both directions as overall trend doesn’t watch the big pic. Swing positions you had an opportunity to the short and for now hold on downside until price action breaks back above the 10ma. Long term, watch for lower prices at the end of Q2.

Technically there is no question that the lean of probability is in consolidation in the uptrend with tech leading the march up. Signs of more of a pullback are positive and can easily play out as the contract expires. Otherwise, watch for the momentum off the lows of the daily session and monitor the strength back upside. Watch the opening for the week and see if price is able to close above day one and back above the 10ma. Use the daily Heiken Ashi bars to signal trend strength. It’s weekly DOJI time which means, flip a coin, it can go either way.

Until that happens, leave your bias at the door, and watch the charts in front of you.

Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low for first signs of a pullback. Downside, watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback as 1st level of support.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Quarterly re-balance in Q2 2018.   


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   


LOWEST OPEN GAPS

  • ES: 1589
  • NQ: 3864.75
  • RTY: 1462.1
  • YM: 14745

Jason Kelly

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady 3-percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

3.04.18

It’s inappropriate to refer to rising prices as “winning” and declining ones as “losing,” because both are part of a profitable process. The metaphor I like is respiration. Neither inhaling nor exhaling is preferable, but part of the necessary package. Just as we don’t think of inhaling as winning and exhaling as losing, nor should we assign those labels to price movement. Hence, February showed a decline, that’s all, and one we hope persists another month.

01.07.18

  • Quarterly Re-Balance: SELL index account; BUY bond shares
  • 22.6% gain for 2017

EducoFin

03.04.18

  • A good trailing-stop takes most emotions out of a trade or investment.
  • Weekly charts display a potential haDelta failure.
  •  Short-term, the market is positive.
  • Ether and Litecoin may display a very strong trend following the current consolidation.  
  • White (QE), grey, and/or black swans may fly over anytime.

Moors & Cabot

January 2018

  • The impact of the hurricanes and the California fires may have a bigger impact on the US economy in 2018-19 than the changes to individual taxes.    

ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s