Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 09.18

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


MML Charts

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.          

Charts of Interest

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Current Technical Trend…   

  • Week 08 recap and trend charts
  • Indices hold at 50ma; NQ pushing higher with XLK/FDN
  • Open Gaps above/below; none formed in week 08
  • VIX levels decrease to mid 16’s
  • Industrial/Transports 
    • Industrials UPTREND: PRICE>50>10>200; Transports UPTREND: 50>PRICE>10>200
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum

  • FANG/FAAMG represented by the FDN (ETF) on Trending HA bars uptrend Weekly uptrend
  • Tech Sector remains in UPTREND

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  • NYAD (NYSE Advance – Decliners)/INDU in sync upside

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index (RED line)
    • Metals, Softs, Energy, Grains, Metals, Livestock, Petroleum   
    • Bloomberg Commodity index (BCOM) index weakening
      • Grains, Petroleum, Metals above

  • FFTY (IBD 50) Consolidation; PRICE>50>10>200
  • VTI Total Stock market Index Consolidation; PRICE>50>10>200
  • Uptrend Momentum: (1/31/18):  FEZ QTD return up 6.95% in comparison to SPY 5.73% 
  • Current IBD Outlook: Market in Confirmed Uptrend
    • ETF strategy: 100% invested

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Video Outlook:

Resume in Week 10

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Key events in the market this week

  • USA: Home Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence/Sentiment, GDP, Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Inco
  • Q4 earnings:
    • Salesforce
    • Payment companies
    • Oil and Gas
    • Departments stores
    • Shoemakers
  • Fed Chief yearly report

  • Indices maintaining uptrend off of 200ma
  • UUP – Dollar index momentum BIG PIC remains downside 
  • VTI/FFTY support off MML lows in consolidation
  • VXX (VIX ETF) momentum downside; 50 under 200sma
  • NYAD/INDU momentum upside
  • IYJ/IYT pullback in UPTREND
  • FDN (F.A.N.G. ETF)/XLK WEEKLY strong uptrend – earnings remain positive, Moving averages 10>50>200
  • Downside Open Gaps remain open to be closed

My 3 Cents

Momentum on the indices may have given lift at the end of week 07 to only consolidate in week 08 on average daily volume. It appears while the market is content to not sell under the 200ma, which in this humble traders opinion will be the floodgates opening is not ready to return to all time highs.

Breakout of the 50ma is the moving average surely to watch and monitor for the short term 10ma to cross back above the 50ma to correlate a positive trend upside in addition to trending Heiken Ashi bars. Otherwise, if unable to break upside, watch for a return back down to 200 if price closes under the 10ma on the daily.

Momentum surely not supporting the return to the lows and while the wish may be for lower prices to end out Q2, positive earnings, strong XLK/FDN and overall Big Pic may keep week 09 pushing higher as long as we can fill the bill of above and breakout of the 50.

Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low for first signs of a pullback. Downside, watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback as 1st level of support.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Quarterly re-balance in Q2 2018.   


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   


LOWEST OPEN GAPS

  • ES: 1589
  • NQ: 3864.75
  • RTY: 1462.1
  • YM: 14745

Jason Kelly

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady 3-percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

2.25.18

Remember this. When you see charts and vigorous debate and summaries of evidence and plums from the recesses of history, the only question on the table is whether there will be three or four interest-rate hikes this year, made more amusing by the fact that in time it won’t matter one bit.

01.07.18

  • Quarterly Re-Balance: SELL index account; BUY bond shares
  • 22.6% gain for 2017

EducoFin

02.04.18

  • A good trailing-stop takes most emotions out of a trade or investment.
  •  Many weekly charts point to a top (strong bearish engulfing pattern).
  • Medium-term, market is damaged. On any chart, the close should be above the buy-stop (red dotted line) to change the negative bias.
  • Technically speaking, the cryptocurrencies look dead.
  •  A short-term bounce from oversold is expected.
  • Trailing stops on the monthly charts look like ‘make it or break it.

Moors & Cabot

January 2018

  • The impact of the hurricanes and the California fires may have a bigger impact on the US economy in 2018-19 than the changes to individual taxes.

ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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