Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 51.17

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


MML Charts

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.   

Charts of Interest

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

———————————————

Current Technical Trend…   

  • Week 50 recap and trend charts
  • Indices back at NEW all time highs
    • RTY remains 25 points off downside
  • Open gaps remain downside on all 4 indices   
  • VIX levels holding at mid 9’s 
  • Industrial/Transports 
    • Transports pullback off MML resistance with Industrials marching to next MML level upside
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync upside as supporting indicator of uptrend momentum

  •  FANG/FAAMG represented by the FDN (ETF) in UPTREND on both Weekly/Daily  

  • NYAD (NYSE Advance – Decliners)/INDU in sync upside   

  • FFTY consolidation
  • VTI Total Stock market Index maintaining upside momentum
  • Uptrend Momentum: FEZ ytd return up 26.48% in comparison to SPY 20.24%
  • Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend

——————————

Video Outlook:

———————————————

Key events in the market this week

  • USA: Housing, GDP, Personal Income, Consumer Sentiment
  • GLOBAL: FR – CPI, GB – BOE Announcement
  • Q3 Earnings Season
    • Nike Fiscal Q2, Micron Fiscal Q1, Fedex
  • Indices futures – All volume in new contract
  • CME launches bitcoin futures (CBOE last week)

————————-

the-bottom-line

Uptrend Technical Probability

  • Key moving averages in sync on indices with no crossovers
  • Indices remain at all time highs – go higher (IBD motto)
  • VIX average low holding under 10
  • IYJ/IYT in sync upside above 10ema
  • NYAD/INDU momentum upside 
  • VTI momentum upside
  • UUP – Dollar index momentum BIG PIC downside
  • FDN/TECH uptrend

Downtrend Technical Probability

  • Downside Open Gaps 
  • Price action pushing at MML high resistance on both long and short term levels
  • FFTY Consolidation
  • McClennan Adv/Dec indicator  struggling to maintain uptrend (@KennyPolcari) 
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): is not pretty….it is now down 5% since early November and the longer term trendline is downward…… The index has now broken all supports and is struggling to hang on, but with no near-term support in sight. (@KennyPolcari) 
  • Most equity/index charts show weakness (haDelta) in weekly and monthly time frames (@EDUCOFIN)

Isn’t it tiring to keep reading all the Posts/Tweets and articles all claiming the tops? Look, I’m like you. I would welcome the pullback to close out downside gaps. Healthy markets do exactly that and when the momentum starts to shift, it will be clear and evident. The term “bubble” continues to be thrown around and 2018 is the year we pullback and so on. Roll back to 2007 when the term bubble was consistently being thrown around in the housing industry, and many were not interested in subscribing to that frame of mind. Likewise today, I remain outside this community and stick to the technical’s. I may not be able to call the tops or wish to but there are those that would love to hang their shield of honor to claim they told you so.

Look at your charts, watch the momentum and manage from the bottom up for this train has not run out of steam yet. Don’t worry yourself about adding to a position short that you can’t keep adding to because your pockets are simply not that deep. The bottom line for me remains the data remains positive. Tax reform for what it may be worth at this point will keep the market up. Retail sales are doing well. Of course at any point, geo-political landscape can change that in a heartbeat.  Watch for the Q4 data to set off the the tone for 2018. For now, I view the probability on both sides and as it appears, the momentum remains upside. At least for the remainder of the 2017.

Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low for first signs of a pullback. Downside, watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback as 1st level of support.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Quarterly re-balance in Q1 2018.   


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   


LOWEST OPEN GAPS

  • ES: 1589
  • NQ: 3864.75
  • RTY: 1462.1
  • YM: 14745

Jason Kelly

For the long term investor, a solid strategy that only requires 4x year portfolio review by achieving a  steady 3-percent quarterly growth in a small-company stock fund by skimming off excess quarterly profit into a safe fund that’s later used to make up shortfalls in weak quarters. 

12.17.17

  • Bears are suggesting active management over index funds for the difficult market ahead. Two problems: The market is always difficult, and they got it wrong in the past so will probably get it wrong again.

Educofin

  • An overextended market
  • SP500: Short-term: positive. Long-term: weaker (haDelta).
  • QQQ: Short-term: breakout above the November high. Bullish. Long-term: bullish.
  • IWM: Short-term: consolidation with a positive bias. Longterm: caution
  • DIA:  Short-term: negative bias (December negative divergences, haOscillator failed to go above zero). Long-term: weaker.
  • Gold: Short-term: negative with more room to fall. Long-term: bearish. Positive only above the 2016 high.
  • Oil: Short-term: consolidation. Long-term: consolidation with a very bullish bias.

ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s