Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 39.17

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


MML Charts

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Charts of Interest

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Current Technical Trend…

  • Week 38 recap and trend charts
  • Indices (YM/ES/RTY) momentum remains upside; NQ pullback downside
  • YM/ES/NQ at all time highs with NQ lagging
    • After lagging in week 38, RTY lifts to all time highs
  • VIX levels holding in mid 9’s
  • FANG/FAMMG stocks off their 52 week high with MSFT closest
  • MML Trend: ES at Zone High; RTY/YM on track to upside Zone High; NQ trending to Zone Low
  • ES/YM with nearest open gaps downside (see open gaps chart below)
  • Indices major key moving averages in sync with 50>200
    • RTY exception 50<200
    • NQ under 10ema  
  • Average volume at and under 60 day average
  • CL holding at MML highs
    • 50ma remains under 200 with price action above all three (10, 50, 200)
  • GC pullback off MML high
    • MML short setup at 1343.8 with momentum downside holding.
  • Uptrend Momentum: FEZ ytd return up 21.11% in comparison to SPY 11.74%
  • Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend

———————————————

Key events in the market this week

  • USA: Fed Speakers, GDP, Yellen
  • GLOBAL: NZ Announcement, BOJ Minutes, JP CPI, GB GDP
  • End of Q3
  • Affordable Health Care – last chance
  • Micron (memory chip maker) reports
  • T-Mobile/Sprint merge?

————————-

the-bottom-line

Contrary to Permabear consensus (and Jim Rogers) Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND. NQ pullback evident though with ES/YM/RTY holding up and driving to MML highs as Q3 end nears may continue to hold upside.  As always, watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low. Downside, watch for ES/YM open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Watch for quarterly re-balance in 1 week. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.   


LOWEST OPEN GAPS

  • ES: 1589
  • NQ: 3864.75
  • YM: 14745

ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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