Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 33

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


the-big-picture-2

Week 32, as the RTY/TF led the march downside with the remaining indices to follow after hitting new all time highs on the YM/ES. Surely uneasiness on the global stage being played out as the catalyst in a market that was already in need of a correction. Losing some ground off the 10ema and tucking under the 50 to close out the week on the ES daily chart. Weekly pullback to the MML overbought, while significant for the week in closing down from the highs and weekly open, yet only a small amount in comparison to the rise since Q4.17. A strong weekly doji bar that leaves us once again in a  state of indecision.

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VIX levels finally getting a move outside the comfort zone to close out in the mid 15’s as the market pulls back. Good volume through the week holding above the 60 period average as the RTY reaches new levels. FANG/FAMMG stocks pulling back off the highs and making  a recovery to close out the week. Blue Apron earnings, associated with AMZN not coming as hoped in week 32. Disney making the splash for the week as it announces a pullout from NFLX on all its content and starting their own service. Permabear posts are starting to heat up.

By the charts, open gaps above on the RTY/TF and YM as the YM/ES/NQ hone in below on its closest gaps before anything deeper becomes a realization. Surely if the indices will not be able to hold at their perspective 50 period averages, the 200ma, lower level MML levels and open gaps become viable levels to watch for support. The RTY/TF which mentioned last week can be the market leader in direction of trend has played out so far to be pulling the other markets with it.     

As always be ready for both directions.

Key events in the market this week are earnings (WMT, HD, BABA, AMD, TGT) FOMC minutes and Philly Fed.

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the-bottom-line

Technical Momentum probability remains in an UPTREND with caution on the RTY as it’s momentum has turned down.

Watch for more earnings this week as we also have the FOMC minutes released. Price action to regain traction will need to lift above the 10ema. The 50ma continues to be resistance above and support below. Complete loss of the 50 will seek the 200ma  and open gaps below. Upside momentum remains just as strong and prevailing heads may prevail and realize North Korean conflict is nothing more. Nothing wrong with being cautious but big picture remains intact upside as the we wait for the RTY/TF momentum to rejoin the trend.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quartley 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. All 4 indices have pulled back and stops may be moved to swing low positions if still in for the long trend. QQQ/SPY confirmation of the uptrend upon support off the daily 50 ma and Heikien Ashi bar back in trend upside. 

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )


Lowest Open Gap: 1869



NQ – NASDAQ Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )


Lowest Open Gap: 4017


RTY – Russell Futures (CME)

Technical Momentum: DOWNTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY)


Lowest Open Gap: NONE  


YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY)


Lowest Open Gap: 15924


ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   oe

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