Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 32

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


the-big-picture-2

Week 31, playing well for the YM as earning  season plays well for the big caps, even though weighted. The ES /NQ remain consolidated as the small caps turned south once again. ES daily walking the 10ema tightrope and maintaining momentum upside near its all time highs. ES weekly once again in consolidation after a 2 month sideways price action at the MML highs. NQ in consolidation for three weeks now and unable to break above the MMl 5937.50. On both charts, two weeks now Heikin Ashi indecision/doji bars exudes the patience needed for the next breakout or pullback.

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VIX levels are having the time of their life playing at the lows as the market holds steady. RTY volume continue to holds its own and build upon since its inception into the market. Now that all FANG/FAAMG econ numbers are out, the follow through may be just enough to hold at the highs and the catalyst the market was looking for the NQ/Tech industry and ETF- XLK to hold upside.   

Transports have taken a hit since mid-July but may have found support on the daily 144 which has been in uptrend for some time.

Overall stock market index VTI still holding strong after a small pullback to the 34ema and back upside.

With nearly one more month to summertime trading and the prospect of a next rate hike in September and focus on the decreasing value of the dollar though still up and monitoring the uptrend on the European stocks (FEZ), will see if any secondary effect to the futures plays out.

Keep this in mind in the weeks ahead. Markets don’t care about the Washington antics. It looks at numbers. So why do you keep trading based on political views and let your bias into the market? Just watch the charts and trend. Yes, markets will temporarily react and that is why intraday trading needs to be ready in both directions. Bottom line, permabears got their keesters kicked. Jason Kelly nailed it right on this week in his weekly newsletter on permabear Paul Singer.

Technically by the charts, a wonderful new indicator I now have to identify the open gaps downside have exposed even more that with 100% will eventually be closed. Suffice to say it will be a  long ride down but for now each markets perspective open gaps remain exposed downside and easily within the scope if we lose support off the short term 10ema which each index appears to be holding at or above except the RTY/Russell. Will the small caps lead the August pullback? History has shown the Russell to be a leader so eyes on the R2K. Watch for the 50ema and MML lower levels posted daily for the downside support. The case for the upside is just as strong and developing wedges/trend lines and consolidation on the NQ/ES will be in the focus.

As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week are earnings (DIS, NVDA, SNAP,APRN, CLN) Jolt’s and Fed Speakers.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

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the-bottom-line

Fed speakers can always rattle the sessions up a bit ahead of the next rate hike possibility and the FED spreadsheet balancing act. The VIX which remains content at these levels and price action holding at or above the 10ema, will keep this market in an uptrend momentum. Watch the RTY/TF vs YM trend divergence and NQ/Es consolidation. It is the catalyst which we monitor for weekly that will flush the market at any given chance. It appears the Russia/Chinese/North Korean tension may be enough to do just that however the economic numbers so far appear to be holding up.

The case for higher highs is just as strong and whether you trade the intraday futures or indices ETF’s, momentum clearly resting on the uptrend is a much stronger play.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quartley 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend as the SPY and QQQ were opportune in week 29. No setup at this juncture as market in strong TREND.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )


Lowest Open Gap: 1869



NQ – NASDAQ Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )


Lowest Open Gap: 4017


RTY – Russell Futures (CME)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

  • Multiple MML Overlay (RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: NONE  


YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY)


Lowest Open Gap: 15924


ETF Sectors


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   oe

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