Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 26

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket


the-big-picture-2

Market indices, in reverse of week 24’s price action as the YM/ES close below the weekly open and the NQ above. Open gaps closed on the YM/ES and the NQ breaking the 61.8% fib pullback as it moves closer to the all time high (recap which may be found here).

VIX levels maintaining in the 10 range as we head into week 26 and volume in the summer doldrums have begun. Permabears starting to increase the volume on the beat off their drums that this is the end game and we have no further momentum to maintain our uptrend continue to hit the airwaves. The tune actually slightly changed with the possibility of some more uptrend left in the bottle

FANG/FAAMG stocks remain steady and climbing back upside as the YM/ES not taking the deep pullback as the NQ did in Week 23, remain in consolidation. As if giving the NQ an opportunity to catch up in momentum. Overall economic data not as strong as we wish it to be as the litmus stress test for the banks survived this last week. We await the Q2 earnings season to show us the big picture.

Technically, the open gaps remain below and closest on the NQ downside are all targets sitting on the indices backside with now even further on the ES and YM. The focus with consolidation and the 10ema will eventually lead to a breakout in either direction.

Crude closing out the lower end gaps with several more below holds in consolidation at the MML lows. Holding under the key moving averages, momentum continues downside. Watch for a retest back upside to break the T3 -40ema around 44.4 and back above the 10ema.

Gold back upside in week 25 to the MML zone high and settling around the 10/50 moving averages and T3-40 on the range chart is the zone of resistance at 1258. Momentum upside with any pullback look to 1250 and  and MML zone low to 1236.

Key events in the market this week include FED speakers, GDP and end of Q2.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

————————-

the-bottom-line

With the NQ breaking the 61.8%  pullback and now holding above the 10ema, short term test will be for the index to hold above and move towards the all time highs. Any pullback will watch the 50ma and MML lower zones. Deeper pullbacks will look to the 200ma and open gaps. 

ES/YM maintaining it’s momentum upside, holds in consolidation at the 10ema. Pullback to the 50ma will be the first level of support. Momentum upside look back up to the highs.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75  



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND   

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 30.48%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 34.15%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon in Q3


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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