Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 24

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket


the-big-picture-2

Market indices, holding and closing above the weekly open on the YM/ES and the NQ falling back to close out two daily open gaps and in the zone of the 50ma, yet all achieving new all time highs in week 23, maintain the unprecedented and  relentless uptrend as each index still holds above mid-term 50 period moving averages (recap which may be found here).

VIX levels maintaining in the 9 -10’s as we head into week 24 and with the NQ selloff on Friday not affecting the ES/YM, appears to give us a big picture of complacency.  Had the ES/YM sold off in unison, I would begin to see a bigger correction in play which apparently was not how the week finished off. Volume will now shift to the September contract as we approach June contract expiration. FANG stocks hitting all time highs and the AMZN/GOOGL pair breaking the 1K mark only to finish downside on Friday will look to regain some traction and what some may consider a sale price. Permabers may come out to play if any additional selling plays out as Jim Rogers in his Friday post already laying out the Doom & Gloom ahead. Keep your eyes on Brazil, UK and FOMC to move the markets in either direction.

With the open gaps now closed out on the NQ and the nearest ones below will sure send the market into a tizzy. The focus will be if the indices can hold or regain (NQ) it’s momentum above the 10ema and reach new upper highs. Since no upper levels beyond the all time highs to refer to and retest, technical upper levels are left to the projections of studies that forecast out percentages. Be it Fibonacci projections, daily upper resistance levels or Murray Math Levels to name a few that can be levels to watch upside.

Crude struggling to regain momentum back above the key moving averages and with two open gaps below, is finding a consolidation base at the MML Zone Low. Watch for a retest upside tot he 50ma or maintain momentum down to close out the gaps down to 43,81. Bigger pic momentum remains down.

Gold which struggles to regain the highs of 2016, and vacillates between the Daily MML zones, is able to barely hold above the 50ma before retesting and bouncing back up. Look for the retest once again as price action draws to MML Zone Low and the 50ema. Bigger pic momentum remains upside yet in consolidation.

Key events in the market this week include FOMC meeting and Quad Witching. June contract expiration on the 16th, 

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. Beware of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL, 6E, 6J

————————-

the-bottom-line

With contract rollover approaching and indices (YM/ES) holding at all time highs, watch for the follow through of Friday’s price action to set the tone at the start of the week. 

Look for NQ to test support at 50ma downside (50% Daily MML). 80 point move to regain traction above the 10ema will be the challenge for the NQ as the short term higher time frame momentum has shifted to the downtrend. Deeper pullbacks will look for Daily MML, 200ma and open gaps. 

ES/YM maintaining it’s momentum upside, watch for any short term correction to fall below the 10ema to drop to the 50ma. If price action is able to hold above the 10ma, retesting the all time high of week 23 and breaking above will look for daily MML high levels as price action has entered ZONE HIGH at resistance level 1 (see video).

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75  



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND   

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 32.29%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 30.35%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon in Q3


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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