Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 22

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   


the-big-picture-2

Market indices, holding and closing above the weekly open (recap which may be found here) with the NQ and ES making new all time highs in week 21 and the YM/TF dragging, maintains its relentless uptrend as each indices holds above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages.  

VIX levels swinging from 16 to under 10 as if hanging out in the 9’s seems comfortable is certainly a change in the volatility indicator. I’m starting to wonder if the indicator means much anymore. Tech industry/FANG stocks under the umbrella of the NQ, appear to be leading the fight upside. The ES joining along with economic numbers to support the move, leaves to wonder why the YM and TF are not joining the UPTREND rally. Surely the iconic “sell in May and go away” not playing out well for those who enjoy the cyclic events in the market.

On the Macro view to the market, I leave it to the likes of KennyPolcari, MrTopStep and Jason Kelly whom seem to cover just enough materials for me to read each day and on the weekends to give me the fundamental Big Pic. I even enjoy a Rick Santelli editorial here and there. It is from that point I turn to the technical’s, and by keeping it as simple as moving averages and MML levels, am able to define where the highest probability is for continued trend or pullback.

Volume in week 21 was considerably low with the move up so I play caution into week 22 as I would like to see a follow through with price and volume together. Keep note of the open gaps made in week 21 in the later part of the week as points for pullback including the 10ma. On the MML levels on the higher time frames, price action at the ZONE HIGH on the NQ and YM, the 10ma and 50% pullback will be the first levels to watch for any move downside. The ES which sits halfway of its recent move up and sits above all the key moving averages (10,50) has probability on it’s side to reach the MML Zone high. Watch for the T34ema on the higher time range charts for support downside as price continues to hold above.

Key events in the market this week include fed speakers, end of month, Beige Book and Payroll numbers. Holiday weekend with no session on Monday as the June contract expiration nears. 

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND  on the bigger pic as we hold above the T34ema. Watch with caution as the TF/YM drag behind the momentum. Beware of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market will sell off even further.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

————————-

the-bottom-line

NQ/ES sitting well above the T34ema on the higher time frame range chart holds the current momentum upside as the YM struggles to maintain pace. Downside action will test the T34ema support and daily 10ema including open gaps from week 21 and MML Zone Low. Deeper pullbacks will test the daily 50ema. Momentum to the upside continue to monitor higher lows and highs and 60m MML levels. Employment numbers in the later part of the week will be the ones to watch.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)   

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and RANGE)


Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND   

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 28.06%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 33.97%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon in Q3


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

Advertisements

One thought on “Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 22

  1. hi david… wanted to let you know….we are traveling some this week….and then staying in arcata until end of june….don’tknow how much  ‘puter access i will have until i get there…..their kids are getting older and ‘taking over’ my ‘puter room….lifemoves on…..can’t wait to see them…..thanx, fran

    From: TradingFibz To: jnffarrell@yahoo.com Sent: Sunday, May 28, 2017 12:17 PM Subject: [New post] Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 22 #yiv6043346503 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv6043346503 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv6043346503 a.yiv6043346503primaryactionlink:link, #yiv6043346503 a.yiv6043346503primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv6043346503 a.yiv6043346503primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv6043346503 a.yiv6043346503primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv6043346503 WordPress.com | TradingFibz posted: “Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket   Market indices, holding and closing above the weekly open (recap which may be found here) with the NQ and ES making new all time highs in week 21 and the YM/TF dragging, maintains its relentless u” | |

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s