Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 19

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket     


 the-big-picture-2

Market indices, holding and closing above the weekly open (recap which may be found here) with the NQ soaring to THREE new all time highs in week 18, maintains its relentless uptrend as each indices holds above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages. 

Last week: “With price action now back above the 10/50 ma’s, attention on the ES and YM turn to the all time highs seen back in March.”

Mission accomplished 2/3 indices.

VIX levels closing out in the mid 10’s after dipping into a number not seen for 10 years – 9 handle! Ok, brush it off, blow out the candles as the market found it’s footing and grew some legs by the end of the week to regain new all time highs and regain a high on the ES not seen since March, 2017. Perhaps no raise in the interest rates by the Fed Reserve, health care vote passing and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations appeared to be enough for price action to continue to maintain momentum above the 10 period moving average and well above the 50. 

It’s understandable to walk in caution as I watch the long term portfolio grow and while I will not re-balance for another month, the intraday trade faces a completely different peril. As Danny Riley states, “these are not our father’s markets.” Rightfully so, however if you want to play in the sandbox, you need to adapt and get your mindset in the game. The game of realize that we continue to technically be in an uptrend and leaving your bias at the door, you may be open to seeing the charts differently.

With the NQ at all time highs,  and no previous reference points upside, daily volume profile and Murray Math levels or Fib extension/projections may be used to determine upside resistance in momentum. Any pullback will surely test the support levels and even close out an open gap or two downside. Keep in mind that institutional support remains well below at the 200ma which will take numerous levels to breakthrough to push downside.

The YM which has struggled recently just to get above the 50ma, at this point appears to be the lagging chart of the indices but holding its course as long as the other indices maintain the upside traction. The ES closing within a handle of the all time high on the Friday close, may just complete the task in the near future pending the weekends French election results. Market seems to think positive.

Some of you may wonder why I don’t include the TF in my analysis as this at one time was my market of choice. Rest assured, with the move back to the CME in July of 2017, I look forward to putting it back in the lineup.

The NQ appears at this point to leading the indices as the economic data out of the FANG stocks overall seem strong however in end of the week trading didn’t seem to want to play in the sandbox. Indices clearly closed at the weekly high and momentum held up after three days of consolidation. The elephant in the room is that volume at weeks end was dismal. While intraday trend doesn’t necessarily need volume, in the big picture it is something that should be noticed to watch for follow through in the days to come.

Key events in the market this week include FRENCH ELECTIONS on Sunday and post results. For the minor events, JOLT’s, Earnings winding down and Multiple Fed Speakers. Throw in Washington politics, economic reform and world instability for good measures.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND  on the bigger pic. Signs of market strength continue as the NQ pushed to all time highs on post data. Beware of the catalyst wrench that looms overhead. 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

————————-

the-bottom-line

French Election results will most definitely play a role on Sunday’s open. Momentum to the downside is increasing to at least close out the Open Daily Gaps on all the indices. Monitor the 10 period moving average for the first signs of support. To the upside, the ES to regain and ring the all time high bell last seen in March which missed by a handle and YM to follow. Sky is the limit on the NQ on the Weekly MML with shorter time frames resistance just above. 

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week. Monitor overnight sessions on a lower time frame and drop the MML charts to 1-2m overlay.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5595.55512.75, 5449.75

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2374, 2353

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20732, 20538

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 29.78%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 24.33%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon in Q3


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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