Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 18

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket  


 the-big-picture-2

Market indices, holding and closing above the weekly open (recap which may be found here) with the NQ soaring to three new all time highs in week 17, maintains its relentless uptrend as each indices holds above the 50/144 ema on the range charts and regaining price action above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages.

VIX levels in week 17 closing out even lower than last weeks levels in the high 10’s as market action opened up two gaps from Sunday’s open to finish out the week on Q1 earnings and GDP data. With price action now back above the 10/50 ma’s, attention on the ES and YM turn to the all time highs seen back in March. With no previous reference points on the NQ, daily volume profile and Murray Math levels or Fib extension/projections may be used to determine upside resistance in momentum. Any pullback will surely test the support levels and even close out an open gap or two. Keep in mind that institutional support remains well below at the 200ma which will take numerous levels to breakthrough to push downside.

Overbought? Are you not tired of the continued stream though it has slowed of market apocalypse? I agree with you that at some point it will draw down and self correct but attempting to pick out the tops is simply a lottery of wannabees that will say they told you so when it occurs. So, they just continue to publish it week, after week. The technical charts which are the foundation for this intraday trader for both directions and while a daily pullback here and there may be found, the overall big picture remains upside until otherwise.

So, was it to be the NQ that would lift the other indices into week 17 was well answered after the initial move at the end of week 16 that followed through to the highs and higher closing out above the previous weeks high. While the intraday 5 minute MML levels can offer opportunities in both directions, the 60m charts after pulling back off the MML highs to 50% pullback at the major support and resistance by weeks end on all three indices may be the start of a move lower or simply a pause before the next lift upside. Price action above the 10 and 50ma will now be a key for uptrend momentum and whether or not we go close out the open gaps from week 17 or push higher. Events scheduled for week 18 may be the catalyst that drive us in either direction.

Key events in the market this week include FOMC announcement, APPL/FB earnings, Yellen, Payroll, Upcoming French Elections and North Korean instability. Throw in Washington politics and economic reform and we have a week of sure uncertainty that lies ahead.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND  on the bigger pic regardless of any tweet or article you may read otherwise that mentions overbought. Signs of market strength continue as the NQ pushes to all time highs with eyes on the upcoming APPL earnings. Beware of the catalyst wrench that can flush the market at any point on hints of world or economic instability.

Observe the intraday MML on the 5m charts, 1-2m on the globex for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor bigger pic trend change. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW PASSED and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

Key Events will most definitely play a roll in price momentum this week. To the upside, the YM and ES to regain and ring the all time high bell last seen in March. The NQ with MML levels just above on the higher timeframe surely could be a carrot dangling ahead. Momentum to the south can also turn on a  dime in key events which may easily test the 10 and 50 period moving averages as well to close out the two open gaps from week 17.


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range

  • Multiple MML Overlay with areas of confluence (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5512.75, 5449.75

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Multiple MML Overlay with areas of confluence (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2374, 2353

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20732, 20538

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 29.96%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 20.33%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon in Q3


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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