Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 17

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket  


 the-big-picture-2

Market indices, holding above the weekly open (recap which may be found here) as the YM continues to struggle to gain momentum upside. The relentless uptrend even with its most recent pullbacks, continues to hold above each indices 50/144 ema on the range charts. The NQ leading the way back upside to its all time high as it regains its holds above the 50ema, is yet to be seen on the YM and ES.

VIX levels in week 16 closing out in the mid 14’s have yet to breach the upper levels above 20 or to fall below 10 indicating an outlier in momentum which would surely initiate a larger move in trend and price action in either direction. Open gaps remain below as the market will return to close out these levels at some point. What will that catalyst be to take us lower? Daily market profile appears to be balanced signifying to this trader that markets continue to find value each day and unsure of any larger move is yet to be seen. 

The technical charts with it’s move back upside on the NQ and lagging ES and struggling YM, have yet to be seen which index in the coming week will pull the others in sync. Is it enough for the NQ rally back up to pull along the ES and YM to regain it’s traction above the 50ma? Will it be the YM to drag down the rest with it? While the intraday 5-15 minute MML levels can offer opportunities in both directions, the 60m charts after pulling back off the MML highs to 50% pullback at the major support and resistance, price action around the 10 and 50ma will be a sign of which MML direction we are most likely to be headed to; upside resistance or downside support. In plain English; it’s decision time.

Key events in the market this week include Tax reform announcement on Wednesday, Earnings season (Thursday big day), end of month trading and GDP on Friday. Keep in mind the French political arena being closely monitored and the North Korean instability. 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

Watch the price action on the ES and YM to follow through to regain traction above the 10 and 50ma. News/information on tax reform this week maybe what the market needs to move in either direction in addition to key economic data this week. Any failure here, look to open gaps, lower MML levels and the 200ma for next levels of support.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND  on the bigger pic. Signs of market strength evident now after week 16 on the NQ. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor trend change. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW PASSED and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2315.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20248

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 28.23%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 11.49%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.   

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