Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 16

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket       


Weakness Shows its Hands in Uptrend Pullback.   

While the overall big picture remains upside, the indices as we roll out Q2 of 2017, have been unable to show its prowess of being an uptrend month as the ES seen below pulls back from the Murray Math High levels with higher probability momentum increasing for at least a 50% pullback to major Support/Resistance.   

In hopes that after week 14 hovering on the 10/50 period moving averages, the indices would move in either direction, week 15 was unable to push above and price action remained below and falling under the perspective moving averages.

All three indices holding under the weekly open and pulling back from their all time highs as the they all draw closer to the next open gaps downside.

Solid trend upside in week 13, followed by consolidation in week 14, giving way to nothing smooth, but downtrend over the week as price action held under the weekly VWAP from MML high to low after a 60m chart reset. What was major Support/Resistance became upper resistance and chopped its way down through the short trading week.

As always. regardless of the big picture, finding pockets of intraday trend is being ready in both directions as this is the ammo of the day trader. With Heikin Ashi bars and MML charts in your tool box, you can always find an opportunity to ride a trend even when the week ends up choppy on it’s way down.

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the-big-picture-2

VIX levels finally catch some wind upside and managed to hit the low 16’s to close out the week in the high 15’s. Open gaps remain below as the market will return to close out these levels at whichever pace it decides it wants to. The inklings of a catalyst for pullback that I have mentioned in prior weeks have clearly made its way into the market. Overall unrest overseas and a loss of euphoric momentum of USA economic overhaul, seem to have put a stall and minor correction in the market which is not a bad thing either from a technical perspective, but concern of instability hangs over us.

The technical charts no longer in consolidation, have managed to pullback from the MML highs and while they remain in an overall trend to the upside, we definitely have a pullback in action. Looking downside as we hold under the 10 and 50 period moving averages, any continued price action down will look to the next level of MML support, open gaps below and the 200 period moving average. The 60m charts holding the lows of last week could be the sufficient level of price action downside that the market needed and we may also see a bounce back upside to the weekly VWAP and 50% pullback.

Key events in the market this week include Tax day, Multiple Fed Speakers, and Beige Book. Core Economic earnings for Q1 starts to role out this week, surely an indicator if the numbers are that great, which can also be smoke and mirrors at times. Don’t forget Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion.

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the-bottom-line

Watch for price action in between the 50 and 200ma to move in either direction. To the downside while the 200ma would be the next major level of support, downside MML levels and open gaps may be opportunities for the market to bounce upside. Upside needs to regain traction above the 10/50 ema which would initially be resistance at this point.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND PULLBACK on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness evident now after week 15. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor trend change as in week 15 price action managed to hold under for the most of the week. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW PASSED and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range; 4hr


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2315.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20248

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 24.58%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 6.32%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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