Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 15

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket       


the-big-picture-2

Market indices, unable to hold in week 14 (recap which may be (found here)  to the mid week rally, end up finishing the week downside and unable to close above the weekly open. While the ongoing uptrend holds above each indices 50/144 ema on the range charts, indices continue to struggle at the daily 50 period moving average and 50% pullback on the Murray Math Level charts.

VIX levels continue to remain low swinging between 11 – 13. A plethora of open gaps remain below as the market too will one day return to close out these levels. The first inkling of any type of catalyst to move in that direction clearly seen in week 14 with the news piece of the US response to the Syrian chemical attack on its citizens. Like I have said for most of 2017, it won’t take much to spook the traders to sell off at these levels.

The technical charts remain consolidated in a month that has a historical record of being bullish yet to be seen. While past performance is never indicative of future price action, the market “appears” to be waiting for its opportune moment for the next move. Big picture events include tax reform and infrastructure spending which if becomes a stalemate, may not look good for this sustained and relentless rally. Any pullback at this juncture will look to the 200ma for the next major support or for the market to regain it’s footing above the 10/50ma which the NQ appears to be in command of after three new all time highs last week.

Key events in the market this week include Jolts, Yellen speech and end of week red star events which would likely not move the market much as the market will be closed on Friday. Core Economic earnings for Q1 starts to role out  for the next several weeks, surely an indicator if the numbers are that great, which can also be smoke and mirrors at times. Don’t forget Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but continue to be playing a bigger role in 2017 as we have seen since Q4 of 2016.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

CLOSELY watch price action around the daily 10/50ma on the ES/YM. If unable to hold, price action may seek support on the next MML level downside. Keep in mind open gaps below. Upside look to regain all time highs as the NQ leads the charge. Lifting and maintaining price above the 10ma will be a positive indicator of market momentum back upside.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness started to show in weeks 11 and 12, trending push back upside in week 13 only to consolidate in week 14. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor trend change as in week 14 price action struggled to pull away. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW HERE and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range; 4hr


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2315.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20248

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 26.33%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Original Buy Point: 69.97
    • April 2017: Added shares; 79.225 Cost Basis
  • Gain: 10.29%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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