Week 14 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.            


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.   

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


Markets Get Spooked.

Truly a lackluster week after employment numbers, FOMC minutes and the US missile attack on Syria that one would think move the market by the end of the week.

Steady the course as we simply continue to play off the 10/50ma on all three indices

…with the NQ leading the path to the upside as three new all time highs hit this past week. Not so lucky on the YM and ES to the upside as all the major indices below closing under the weekly open.

With Wednesday the highlight of the week as price action managed to swing to the MML highs and back down to the lows in 1 session only to finish the week out “hugging” the weekly VWAP. Surely a different picture from the previous week which was a solid trend to the upside. Can you say consolidation?

In the end, finding pockets of intraday trend are being ready in both directions is the ammo if the day trader. With Heikin Ashi bars and MML charts in your tool box, you can always find an opportunity to ride a trend even when the week ends up FLAT around key levels.


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 14 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Week 13 in the books with the end of Q1 contract and 3 months in to 2017 (recap which may be (found here) market indices regained their footing on a failed gap down Sunday to start out last week which put the indices back upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices 50/144 ema and key moving averages (50, 200) on higher time frames. The ES and NQ back above their perspective 10 day moving averages with the struggling YM right at the daily 10/50 and MML major support and resistance.

The ES which worked it’s way from the MML lows to highs throughout the week holding above the weekly VWAP on an hourly chart, only to find consolidation on the later part of week 13 on low volume, brings pause to the end of the week rally.

VIX levels continue to remain low swinging between 11 – 13. Rumors of  the health care vote back in play and upcoming tax reform/infrastructure spending which have yet to be seen. Unless something significant comes out of these economic headliners, price action may struggle at these levels until confirmation of reform has taken place. Remain steadfast at these levels as a plethora of naysayers and permabears continue to plague the social media with doomsday and apocalyptic events for the market to plummet. Which has some point most likely will happen as open gaps below remain open.

Key events in the market this week include FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the market continues to ponder the amount of rate hikes to come in 2017 and Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers. Federal reserve speakers which surely can move the market on any given day are spread throughout the week. Core Economic earnings for Q1 starts to role out  for the next 6 weeks, surely an indicator if the numbers are that great, which can also be smoke and mirrors at times. Don’t forget Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but continue to be playing a bigger role in 2017 as we have seen since Q4 of 2016.

…and last, the APRIL showers which by history tend to bring a bullish sentiment to the market has yet to be seen. Keep in mind that past performance never indicative of future price action.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

Watch price action around the daily 10/50ma on the ES/YM. If unable to hold, price action may seek support around 50% pullback (MML Major S/R) and open gaps below. Upside look to regain all time highs. NQ at the highs, with positive earnings numbers mid month will plow higher and until then, watch the 10dma for downside trend break and 50ma for support.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness started to show in week 11 and 12 with a push back upside in week 13. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor trend change. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW HERE and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 

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Monday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session: Indices sell off.
        • NQ makes all time high after which several algo quick like pullbacks on the sell
          • NQ-AD line outlier at the lows holds up
        • ES/YM remain steady with limited upside price action
        • Indices hit Average Daily Range lows
      • PM Session: chops at lows with pullback to today’s open
    • Gold/Yen/Euro upside
    • Crude slides
    • VIX closes out @ 12.38
    • Core Sector List:  6 GREEN; 19 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • ISM Manufacturing
    • PMI Manufacturing: Loss of Momentum
    • Tesla delivers more than 25k cars 
    • 401K rebalancing
  • News
    • Egyptian President visits WH
    • Terrorist Bombing in Russia?
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • HA bars with the Market profile map and AD line to give you overall sense of where turn around may happen
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: DROP & POP

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session: Momentum back up to Globex Highs with deep pullbacks on ES/NQ; YM smooth trend
      • PM Session: Chop at the highs
      • Balanced TPO/VPO Profile
    • Crude rally back into low 51
    • VIX closes out @ 11.79
    • Core Sector List:  19 GREEN;  6 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • US Trade deficit falls as US exports hits 2 year high
    • Factory Orders: Solid but no strength
  • News
    • POTUS news conference with CEO’s on Infrastructure
    • Fred Lacker leaves Fed Reserve
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND CHOP

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session
        • YM/ES in Super Trend; NQ lagging
        • NQ marks a new ALL Time High
      • PM Session
        • Market sells off
    • VIX closes out @ 12.89
    • Core Sector List:  2 GREEN; 23 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • ADP: higher than expected
    • ISM Non MFG: Down
    • EIA Crude: Build
    • FOMC Minutes: Balance Sheet unwinding, Stock Market valuations (No-No for the fed to comment)
    • Mutual Funds Q2 Buy
  • News
    • POTUS meets with King Abdullah of Jordan
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DROP and SUPER POP
    • US Session: POP & BIG DROP

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Thursday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session: ALL out chop fest
      • PM Session: Range bound – longer trending setups
    • Minimal Movement on Crude, Gold, Yen and Euro
    • VIX closes out @ 12.39
    • Core Sector List: 23 GREEN; 2 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: Down
    • Major Retailers on path for bankruptcy filings: Sears, 99 cents stores
    • NY Fed disagrees with minutes; balance sheet not normalized til mid 2018
  • News
    • Syria alleged use of chemical weapons
    • SCOTUS nomination on path
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • MML range bound strategy worked best
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: RANGE BOUND CHOP!!!!

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Friday

Chart of the Day

————————

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session: Sells off in first 30m
      • PM session: Grind back upside
    • GC/6E/6J sell in PM sesison
    • Crude lift on Globex military strike
    • VIX closes out @ 12.87
    • Core Sector List: 13  GREEN; 12 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Non-Farm Payrolls: Very Low
  • News
    • US shoots off missiles into Syria in Globex session
    • Russian/UN response to missile strike
    • White house staff shake up
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DROP/POP
    • US Session: DROP/POP

Recommended Viewing for April

  • Another AMAZON Best Seller on Trading Psychology & Trade Management

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

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e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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