Week 13 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.              


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


3 months down (Q1)…that’s a wrap.

After a minor pullback in the preceding weeks up to week 13 to the perspective 50ma and regaining upside above the 10ma, indices remain back in an uptrend after the gap down on Sunday’s Globex open.  The NQ leading the pack back upside to all time highs, hit twice this past week.

With the AM sessions tough and go through the week, stepping back and appreciating the bigger picture as price action held above the weekly VWAP on the higher 60m timeframe from MML low to high.

When the markets found their footing in week 13, though not all moving in sync at the start, price action did move upside and together for a substantial move. Frustrating part was waiting for the exact setup.

In the end, quite an impressive topping for 2017 as we close out Q1 and the 1st contract of the year as we regain the highs on the NQ and ES/YM a bit more to go as they have moved back to or above their 10dma’s.


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

———————————————–

Week 13 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

With week 12 in the books and the recap which may be found here, market indices on a pullback continue to remain upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices respective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (50, 200) on higher time frames. The 10 day moving average has lost support on both the YM and ES; a first indicator of a trend break. The ES which has found significant resistance on a weekly MML chart has a probability of a 50% pullback to major support resistance at 2250 if the 50ma is unable to hold. This would put the ES in proximity of its’ 200 day moving average, not seen since November, 2016. 

VIX levels continue to remain low in the high 12’s. With the health care out of the way for now and not for the better, the three biggies which seem to loom over the market from an economic reform include taxes, infrastructure and trade. This is where the market thought it would see change and unless something significant comes out of these headliners, price action may struggle at these levels.

Key events in the market this week include Federal reserve speakers which surely can move the market on any given day. End of the month, GDP and Brexit are highlights of the week which I will be watching closely for volatility. Don’t rule out Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but continue to be playing a bigger role in 2017.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

————————-

the-bottom-line

Watch price action around the daily 50ma on market indices. If unable to hold, price action may seek support around 50% pullback and open gaps. Upside action look for price to regain the 10dma and push above.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness started to show in week 11 and followed through in week 12. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing which is approaching and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 

———————————————–

Monday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Gap down Sunday; turnaround Monday
      • Choppy AM session – best to avoid by going to higher time frame.
    • VIX closes out @ 12.50
    • Core Sector List:  22 GREEN; 3 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Bearish sentiment on $SNAP reverses
    • Dallas Fed misses
  • News
    • Proposed August tax date reform
    • POTUS to sign order to ease energy restrictions
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • New way of looking at the MML chart
      • 50/144ema cloud overlay with HA bars in region 2. T3-10 for good measures.
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND – Gap Down
    • US Session: UPTREND – Closed Gap on NQ

——————

———————————————–

Tuesday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session chop with pockets of TREND unable to gain footing until pre-Euro close with strong momentum upside
      • PM session follow through to the upside and chops at the MML highs
    • Gold/Yen/euro sell off
    • VIX closes out @ 11.53
    • Core Sector List:  23 GREEN; 2 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Consumer Confidence: WAY UP
    • Ford announces investment in Michigan plants
    • Amazon acquisition of Souq.com
  • News
    • Healthcare bill vote may not be over
    • Government rumored shutdown in April looms
    • Ryan news conference
    • Suspicious package at WH
    • Germany seeking Early UK Brexit pledge to pay its EU bill
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND

———————————————–

Wednesday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session: Slow momentum, deeper pullbacks, YM chop
      • PM Session: Slow grinding uptrend
      • Decreased volume
    • Crude Up
    • Gold/YEN/Euro chop
    • VIX closes out @ 11.42
    • Core Sector List: 18 GREEN; 7 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • BREXIT – Article 50 – “non event” event
    • Pending Home Sales: UP
    • EIA: Build
  • News
    • House GOP to weigh another try next week on health care vote
    • Samsung S8 to preview in Mid to late April
    • Crayola to retire one of its colors this Friday; National Crayon Day
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: UPTREND

———————————————–

Thursday

———————-

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session moved up; NQ hits all time high and all three drop @ Euro close
      • PM session off the lows and back upside to chop
    • Crude back up into 50’s
    • Euro/YEN trend down
    • VIX closes out @ 11.54
    • Core Sector List:  12 GREEN; 13 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: UP
    • GDP: Up with Mixed negative data
    • US debt to reach 150% of GDP in 30 years
  • News
    • Russell 2000 to return to CME on July 10th
    • Jeff Bezos now second richest passing up Buffett – Monday news
    • White House admin met today on tax reform
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: POP & DROP
    • US Session: POP, DROP & CHOP

———————————————–

Friday

Chart of the Day

———————-

  • Markets
    • AM session lift and right prior to bond market close, drop
      • YM sideways chop action
      • Deep pullbacks
      • NQ makes all time high
      • Cumulative tick index down and lifts above zero post 1 hour of market open
    • Post bond close, market recovers back upside with end of the month volatility chop
    • VIX closes out @ 12.37
    • Core Sector List:  13 GREEN; 12 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Payroll Income: Low end of consensus
    • Consumer sentiment: DOWN
    • Chicago PMI: UP
    • Q1 strong finish
  • News
    • Venezuela political unrest
    • Fed signals at perhaps initiation of shedding bonds from portfolio
    • Space X shoots off recycled rocket
    • US sanctions 11 N. Korea individuals and 1 company
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Trending HA bar above/below cloud were at a minimum solid scalp setup
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DROP & CHOP
    • US Session: CHOP

Recommended Reading for April

  • Another AMAZON Best Seller on Trading Psychology & Trade Management

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

Manual Cover

e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s