Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 14

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket    


the-big-picture-2

Week 13 in the books with the end of Q1 contract and 3 months in to 2017 (recap which may be (found here) market indices regained their footing on a failed gap down Sunday to start out last week which put the indices back upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices 50/144 ema and key moving averages (50, 200) on higher time frames. The ES and NQ back above their perspective 10 day moving averages with the struggling YM right at the daily 10/50 and MML major support and resistance.

The ES which worked it’s way from the MML lows to highs throughout the week holding above the weekly VWAP on an hourly chart, only to find consolidation on the later part of week 13 on low volume, brings pause to the end of the week rally.

VIX levels continue to remain low swinging between 11 – 13. Rumors of  the health care vote back in play and upcoming tax reform/infrastructure spending which have yet to be seen. Unless something significant comes out of these economic headliners, price action may struggle at these levels until confirmation of reform has taken place. Remain steadfast at these levels as a plethora of naysayers and permabears continue to plague the social media with doomsday and apocalyptic events for the market to plummet. Which has some point most likely will happen as open gaps below remain open.

Key events in the market this week include FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the market continues to ponder the amount of rate hikes to come in 2017 and Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers. Federal reserve speakers which surely can move the market on any given day are spread throughout the week. Core Economic earnings for Q1 starts to role out  for the next 6 weeks, surely an indicator if the numbers are that great, which can also be smoke and mirrors at times. Don’t forget Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but continue to be playing a bigger role in 2017 as we have seen since Q4 of 2016.

…and last, the APRIL showers which by history tend to bring a bullish sentiment to the market has yet to be seen. Keep in mind that past performance never indicative of future price action.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

Watch price action around the daily 10/50ma on the ES/YM. If unable to hold, price action may seek support around 50% pullback (MML Major S/R) and open gaps below. Upside look to regain all time highs. NQ at the highs, with positive earnings numbers mid month will plow higher and until then, watch the 10dma for downside trend break and 50ma for support.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness started to show in week 11 and 12 with a push back upside in week 13. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. Keep a weekly VWAP on the 60m chart to monitor trend change. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing NOW HERE and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range; 4hr


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2315.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20248

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 28.79%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)
  • January, 2017 Action
    • Sold off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account
  • Next Action: April, 2017
    • SELL Bond Account/BUY Shares


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Buy Point: 69.97
  • Gain: 26.07%
  • Next Action: April, 2017
    • SELL Bond Account/BUY Shares

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.  


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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