Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 13

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket    


the-big-picture-2

With week 12 in the books and the recap which may be found here, market indices on a pullback continue to remain upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices respective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (50, 200) on higher time frames. The 10 day moving average has lost support on both the YM and ES; a first indicator of a trend break. The ES which has found significant resistance on a weekly MML chart has a probability of a 50% pullback to major support resistance at 2250 if the 50ma is unable to hold. This would put the ES in proximity of its’ 200 day moving average, not seen since November, 2016. 

VIX levels continue to remain low in the high 12’s. With the health care out of the way for now and not for the better, the three biggies which seem to loom over the market from an economic reform include taxes, infrastructure and trade. This is where the market thought it would see change and unless something significant comes out of these headliners, price action may struggle at these levels.

Key events in the market this week include Federal reserve speakers which surely can move the market on any given day. End of the month, GDP and Brexit are highlights of the week which I will be watching closely for volatility. Don’t rule out Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but continue to be playing a bigger role in 2017.

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

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the-bottom-line

Watch price action around the daily 50ma on market indices. If unable to hold, price action may seek support around 50% pullback and open gaps. Upside action look for price to regain the 10dma and push above.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger pic. Signs of market weakness started to show in week 11 and followed through in week 12. Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing which is approaching and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range; 4hr


 Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2315.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20248

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 26.00%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)
  • January, 2017 Action
    • Sold off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account
  • Next Action: April, 2017


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Buy Point: 69.97
  • Gain: 21.17%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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