Week 12 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.            


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


Kerplunk!

That’s exactly how the market played itself out on Tuesday as the three indices initiated a hail short to the downside. Interesting enough it was the NQ making an all time high just prior to the turnaround.

Mid-week reprieve from the selloff was welcome in comparison to the end of the week chop,

as the indices drew near to their respective 50dma and found support. The headlines out of Washington on Thursday and Friday did not help any as the health care vote seemed to play out quite the drama in a minute by minute sense of whether it would pass or not. Eventually the bill was pulled and markets found an opportunity to lift in the last hour of trading on Friday. Directly in contrast to what @CNBC thought would happen (good thing I don’t use them as my source of trend direction).


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 12 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Q1 – what a ride it was!

Looking at the ES weekly, 

….it has been nothing but relentless price momentum upside with the casual pullback on a daily chart. Permabears have been littering the twitter waves for months now waving their “bubble” flags in hopes that the day will be sooner rather than later that they told you so. The count is endless in the number of technical signals that have been broadcasted that have simply been run over and right through as we have pushed the limits of the market. Overvaluations, overbought and the next big short; all common terms to make the headlines in hopes that they were the ones that called it first. Even to the extremes that WWIII is brewing, which by the signs given (by this well respected and noted money manager) may lead us there in due time based on their analysis of world events.

Meanwhile, my IJR and TQQQ holdings continue to reap the benefits of this momentum move based on Jason Kelly’s quarter re-balancing. Had I listened to any of the naysayers starting back in 2014, I would have missed on the gains I have attributed over the market’s rally, illogical as it may be to you. I keep it simple Jedi traders and while the IBD has solid research behind their fundamentally strong stocks, I don’t have the need to chase the next IPO or individual company that will become the next “FANG” stock. The hopes of a deeper pullback would have been well timed to close out open gaps that I have mentioned in my previous weekly outlooks, and the prospect of buying more into this rally instead of having to sell off to re-balance in the coming month have yet to be seen. Either way, one fact is for sure and will be rehashed for years to come, the rally that went against all the rules is in  he books.

#nowwhat?

With week 11 closing out the quarter with the FOMC announcement,  the indices futures continue to remain upside in what continues to be an ongoing uptrend holding above each indices perspective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (10, 50, 200) on higher time frames.  After the price action push to all time highs as seen in the chart below, it was only the NQ able to return back upside as the ES and YM failed at regaining to its’ highs. Is this perhaps a technical concern that the rally may be waning or just consolidation on the lower time frames until the next push higher back to the all time highs?

Looking ahead to week 12, VIX levels continue to remain low as technical indicators by my charts have just enough reason to go in either direction. I know that is not what you want to hear, but consolidation is exactly that. Key events in the market this week include Federal reserve speakers which can surely move the market on any given day. Don’t rule out Washington politics and worldly imbalance to set the market in motion which by any other given year may be not be as newsworthy but seem to be playing a bigger role in 2017.

Watch those daily/weekly and monthly VWAP for support and resistance both intraday and the higher time frames.

the-bottom-line

Watch for any pullbacks to the open gaps on the YM or ES. If the daily lows continue to be bought and lifted, TREND will remain upside and may retest the perspective all time highs.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS at this point to hold at the highs on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to “shake things up” downside. It won’t take much these days! Continue to monitor for the break of the daily 10ma downside or revisiting the all time highs in the opposite direction. Early signs of market weakness has started to show in week 11.

Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing which is approaching and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. Placing a 250 sma/VWAP on your daily/longer term range charts can be one useful indicator before institutional support and taking in more profit.


Outlook Video: 

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Monday

Chart of the Day

————————

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session rally
      • PM session pullback to LOD and back up
      • ES closes out open GAP
    • VIX closes out @ 11.34 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 9 GREEN; 16 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • AAPL reaches new highs
  • News
    • Brexit will invoke article 50 on 3.29
    • Testimony on Russian intervention in elections
    • North Korea
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: Extended CHOP

———————————————–

Tuesday

Chart of the Day

————————

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Globex was strong uptrend
      • RTH SUPER SELL OFF
      • Indices unable to hold upside @market open
      • ES/YM lead and NQ followed after hitting all time high
      • AM session with minor pullbacks
      • PM session volatile chop under 50/144ema cloud
      • Best option to go to higher time frame
      • Open Gaps closed on YM/ES
    • Gold rally upside
    • VIX closes out @ 12.47 (UP)
    • Core Sector List:  2 GREEN; 23 RED
    • Market Breadth: DEEP in the RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • S/P dropped more than 1% – breaking streak
    • FB hit all time highs
    • APPL with new product line enhancement of current devices
    • Nike Earnings: EPS beats
  • News
    • North Korea possible increased sanctions
    • Brexit trigger on March 29
    • Health Care Bill not possibly happening
    • Impeachment rumor?
    • French pre-election debate 
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

————————

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Choppy, volatile price action
      • Higher time frames kept you out of false setups/noise
      • Holding around previous session VPOC; NQ leading upside
    • VIX closes out @ 12.81 (UP)
    • Core Sector List:  17 GREEN;  8 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Home Sales: Down
    • EIA: Build
    • Sears, JCrew: numbers not lookimg good
    • Payless: filing for bankruptcy
  • News
    • London Terrorist Attack
    • Health Bill 
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: CHOP

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Thursday

Chart of the Day

————————

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM chop leads to POP before mid session
      • PM session volatility after health care vote put on hold and rumors of pass/no pass
    • VIX closes out @ 13.12
    • Core Sector List:  11 GREEN; 14 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: UP
    • Yellen: No comments eluding to economic conditions
    • Home Sales: Up
  • News
    • Health Care Vote: Volatile indecision
    • Disney CEO to stay until July 2019
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: CHOP

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Friday

————————

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session NQ leads upside
      • PM session holds until Health care vote uncertainty; Algo’s let loose
    • Crude/Gold/Yen/Euro Chop
    • VIX closes out @ 12.96
    • Core Sector List: 7 GREEN; 18 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Durable Goods: Unchanged
    • PMI Flash: Weakness
  • News
    • Health care Vote: VOLATILITY and in the end pulls the bill
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: FLAT

Recommended Viewing for March

  • Rated 5 star book on AMAZON on Trading Psychology

trade-mindfully

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

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e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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