Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 11

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket    


the-big-picture-2

Pullback Indeed!

Hoping for some pullback through the weeks, week 10 delivered as stated in last week’s outlook, “key events ahead may be just the catalyst that we need to pull back and correct the market to its nearest open gaps.”  Open gaps may not be the end all to a pullback but surely a level to watch as market is trending down on any given day as we have plenty more to come downside. The market surely has delivered some moments of economic uncertainty and just when you thought that may be the catalyst needed to pullback, no such luck.

Luck brought us reprieve but short lived once again, at least on the NQ as price action rose just shy of all time highs on Friday. The ES and YM futures were not so lucky as they close out under their perspective weekly opens. Heads up on the divergence into week 11. 

With week 10 behind us and the ever looming non-farm payrolls data out as of last Friday, we remain in a pattern of uncertainty once again as the FOMC announcement approaches. Indices continue to remain on the higher time frame Murray Levels upside in what continues to be an ongoing  uptrend holding above each indices perspective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (10, 50, 200). For no other reason than the fact that markets remain upside, even with the pullback above the well monitored moving averages, keeps my perspective for the short term in the same direction. Once price action pulls back on the 4 hour chart under key noted levels in Week 11’s outlook video, I will default to the daily chart and watch for any price action closing in on daily gaps and moving averages. Upside action definitely has room to move as the YM and ES may revisit and retest the all time highs achieved most recently. If able, monitor the Globex session/London open to get the early entries on what may be a trending session on any given day.

Interesting perspective on the VIX as it has remained below 20 for 121 straight days. A streak not seen since 2011. So are things that great? Who am I to question? As a technical trader, I simply resort to my charts to be ready for both directions and use the Heikin Ashi bars in trend as my indicator. 

Looking ahead to week 11, VIX levels remain low and perhaps adding to its already growing number of days below 20 will keep this market afloat and above it’s perspective moving averages, both on a daily and range charts. Key events in the market this week include FOMC and a heavy duty Wednesday on the economic front. This week also is are quarterly Quad Witching event and all eyes on the SPX 2400 strike calls Open Interest mid month as we may  see the ES retesting the upper levels. 

Watch those daily/weekly and monthly VWAP for support and resistance both intraday and the higher time frames.

the-bottom-line

FOMC is the event to watch. Until then, TREND remains upside as the dips continue to be bought with considerable momentum back upside. 

Technical momentum probability REMAINS at this point to lead us higher on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to “shake things up” downside. It won’t take much! Watch for the break of the daily 10ma downside or revisiting the all time highs in the opposite direction. Early signs of market weakness has started to sign.

Observe the intraday on the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. I will continue notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing which is approaching and is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. Placing a 250 sma/VWAP on your daily/longer term range charts can be one useful indicator before institutional support and taking in more profit.


Outlook Video: 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Daily; Range; 4hr

 


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5232.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2348.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND


Nearest Open Daily Gap: 20646

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 27.19%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)
  • January, 2017 Action
    • Sold off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Buy Point: 69.97
  • Gain: 22.75%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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