Week 10 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.         


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 10 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Serious Open Gaps!

For weeks now I have been commenting on the fact of how relentless the market has been with any pullbacks short lived.  Even in week 9 as the market pushed up to its highest highs once again, and caution remains to loom in the market at the highs, key events ahead may be just the catalyst that we need to pull back and correct the market to its nearest open gaps. 

2017-03-03-open-gaps

While remaining open gaps may be an entirely other article to write, I mention it here briefly in awareness that the US indices while sitting at some very comfortable levels upside, will at some point need to close out “unfinished business” before rallying higher. Now, some of you may disagree with me and that is fine and your right to do so, however when it comes to the indices, 100% of ALL regular trading hour open gaps EVENTUALLY get filled. Simply that and you should be at least prepared that it WILL happen at some point. Not a matter of if, but when. What concerns me more is that while the further we pull away from these lower levels, the drop at one point will be more substantial and “painful” to some. For the long term trader, a fantastic opportunity to average in at lower price. Be mindful of stops and that markets move in both directions.

Week 9 seemed to focus on POTUS Trump’s address to Congress, numerous Fed speakers with Yellen topping off the week and the SNAP IPO. Don’t even get me started on the IPO. Markets gaped up on POTUS Trump’s address and rallied higher to only pullback and close out the open gap on the NQ. Indices remain at the highs of Murray Levels upside in what continues to be a relentless uptrend holding above each index’s perspective 50/144 ema and key moving averages (10, 50, 200) to close out the week upside of it’s weekly opening prices.

Now, I don’t know if it’s just me and my crumb trader perception, but it seems that intraday interest in the markets have waned based on simply observation of twitter feed and lack of solid volume day in and day out. It still amazes me at the amount of articles/posts/tweets that I do see, to continue to flood the market of hatred and despair of how can this market continue to move up and perhaps this may be the reason that intraday traders have backed off some. Why should their be any logic to this market as some have pointed to reasons of insanity of this drive up? I rest my mind and remove the emotion by focusing on the best for me is to sit comfortably in my “Squeezing of the Orange Juice” analogy. I realize that when the orange is truly squeezed and what left is the scrapes of pulp, the hunger will come back when the next fresh orange comes along. Till then, eyes on the current “orange” until it’s squeezed for every last part.

Week TEN is one step closer to contract rollover and non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The obvious prospect for a next rate hike are on plenty of traders radar and will be monitoring for any “clues.”  

Technically, we remain near the highs after a midweek pullback with serious open gaps remaining below as highlighted above. VIX levels still remain low and almost pointless of indicating when the market will turn as it doesn’t seem to be correlated to one another most recently (VIX & Markets running in the same direction). The daily charts on the indices clearly paint that picture as we hold above the respective 10/50/200 ma’s. The 4 hour MML charts which support the bigger trend on a lower time frame also remain at the highs and continue to remain in a very tight range. Watch for the SPX 2400 strike calls Open Interest mid month as I can see the ES retesting the upper levels. As we continue to push at the highs, and looking to the smaller time frames for every inch of how much more it can go, has been my most reliable indicator by use of the Heikin Ashi trend bars on both the range charts and 15/60m MML levels. Throw in a daily/weekly and monthly VWAP for good measures.

the-bottom-line

Until the market shows evidence of distribution, there is only one TREND at this point. Probability of at least a pullback to close out last weeks open gap is in play before moving higher.

Technical momentum probability CONTINUES to remain at this point to lead us higher on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to “shake things up” downside. It STILL won’t take much! 

I state with caution as seen in the charts that we are at a technical momentum decision time on the bigger picture as we have been week after week based on my strategy that puts price action at these upper levels in a tight range. I resort intraday to the 60/15m charts for any alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside through social media and my daily outlook; posted 15 minutes prior to the US open.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. Placing a 250 sma on your daily/longer term range charts can be one useful indicator before institutional support and taking in more profit.

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Monday

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Net short from overnight runs down and off lows back upside 
      • PM session solid trend with no deep pullbacks
      • ES closes out open gap
    • Market Internals gradually improving throughout the session to the GREEN side.
    • VIX closes out @ 11.24 (UP)
    • Core Sector List:  12 GREEN; 13 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Factory Orders: Not good, transports lifted number
  • News
    • POTUS signs travel ban
    • First indicators of Health Care reform
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • “Clean”, no long wick setups
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND 

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • BALANCED MARKET PROFILE
      • Overnight session on ES, 100% net short.
      • Volatile price action as price lifts and reverses to low of the day and back into value
      • AM session solid TREND
      • PM Chop with 1 last trend down to Low of session and back up
    • VIX closes out @ 11.45 (+.21)
    • Core Sector List:  8 GREEN; 17 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Consumer Credit: DROP
  • News
    • Wikileaks releases CIA damaging reports
    • UK MAY loses vote in LORD’s to accept BREXIT amendment
    • POTUS Trump releases first draft of health care repeal
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • MML levels after 1st reset held today to the support/resistance
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: VOLATILE UP/DOWN

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • BALANCED MARKET PROFILE
      • Overnight session on ES, 100% net short. opening at POC
      • Choppy with longer range setups, volatile roller coaster
      • Deep pullbacks
      • Todays Open: YM/ES finish down; NQ upside
    • CRUDE DUMPS to low 50’s
    • VIX closes out @ 11.86 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 8 GREEN; 17 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • ADP Employment: Big Gain
    • Crude: Large Build
  • News
    • Drug prices to be targeted in Washington
    • Wikileaks CIA fallout continues
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND CHOP

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Thursday

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Mid-session CHOP
      • Volatile PM session whip down and back up to globex high/daily open
    • Crude sinks more and holds under 50
    • VIX closes out @ 12.30 (UP)
    • Core Sector List:  12 GREEN;  13 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: Up but averaging low
    • ECB/DRAGHI: Risks of deflation have largely dissapeared
    • OPEC WARS: Saudis tell US won’t extend cuts to offset Shale
  • News
    • Congress to be asked to raise debt limit
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: UP/DOWN/UP = FLAT

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Friday

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • June Contract
      • TPO overnight 100% net long; Gaps closed out
      • Low of session at 13:00 hrs
      • MML levels hit upper/lower on NQ/ES
      • Choppy mid-AM session giving way to mid session drop and PM session pullback to 61.8%
      • PM session GRINDS back upside
    • Crude pushes lower
    • VIX closes out @ 11.66 (Down)
    • Core Sector List:  15 GREEN; 10 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • NFP: UP (U6 unemployment at 9.2; DOWN)
    • SEC declines Bitcoin ETF; plunges $300 at close
  • News
    • Health Care reform
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND with pullback; close under US Daily open

Recommended Viewing for March

  • Rated 5 star book on AMAZON on Trading Psychology

trade-mindfully

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

Manual Cover

e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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