Week 9 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.           


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets  

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 9 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Pullback…short lived!

No, it couldn’t be. I can’t remember the last price action to the short of more than 50 ticks and it FINALLY happened to us this week. However, as in any relentless TREND, it was short-lived and market managed to not only recover in the same day but almost back up to the all time highs to close out the week, totaling ten out of the last fourteen days of achieving new upper levels.

If you have been following my analogy of the Orange Squeeze the last several weeks, it appears we have found some more pulp out of this market. Last week I alluded and entertained the idea that the market may actually ease off a bit. Well, at least one day reprieve was good enough to satisfy the pallete. However it seems apparent at this point, the orange has more “juice” in it.

I remain quite amazed at the plethora of articles/posts/tweets that continue to flood the market of hatred and despair of how can this market continue to move up with internals not in sync and volume not matching history of a move such as the one we have having. better yet, the continuous running tally of how much the ES has not had more that a 1% pullback. It would be nice if they would at least come up with the same tally number!

So let’s put this to rest and give you my 3 cents. Day and day out, I reiterate to leave your BIAS at the door when trading and ONLY watch the charts in front of you. This is best defined as, no matter where you think the market should be, watching trend each day and being ready in both directions will keep you out of the emotion of the ongoing permabear influence and have you focused on making ticks. Whatever strategy you may have, it is recognizing the market will move where it wants and you have NO CONTROL over it. I can throw at you books to read and posts by Steven Burns (good stuff) that will simply reiterate what patient and disciplined traders alike are instilled with. If you haven’t learned it yet, not to late but a good time to get with the game and realize that this market is simply not ready to correct itself. I like some of you would prefer the market to pullback and close out the lower open gaps and return to the upper highs, but until that time, my cells are that much happier knowing what a trend looks like and seeking setups with trade management that allows one to ride a trend wave, in BOTH directions on any given day. 

Week nine appears to be a bit heavier on the economic front than week 8 as we roll out the month. Tax reform announcement, March contract expiration nearing, GDP, non-farm payrolls, multiple fed reserve speakers and the prospect for a next rate hike are all upcoming economic events that remain on my radar alert.

Technically, we remain near the highs with serious open gaps below. VIX levels remain low and almost pointless of indicating when the market will turn. The daily charts on the indices clearly paint that picture as we hold above the respective 50/200 ma’s. The 4 hour MML charts which support the bigger trend on a lower time frame also remain at the highs and continue to remain in a very tight range. The globex sessions which have been a solid ground for trend setups with the London open, but never indicative of where we are headed in the US session (a great example from at least two days this past week). As we continue to push at the highs, and looking to the smaller time frames for every inch of how much more it can go, has been my most reliable indicator by use of the Heikin Ashi trend bars on both the range charts and 15/60m MML levels. 

the-bottom-line

This is a tough one to swallow but until the market shows evidence of distribution, there is only one TREND at this point.

Technical momentum probability CONTINUES to remain at this point to lead us higher on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to shake things up downside. It STILL won’t take much! 

I state with caution as seen in the charts below we are at a technical momentum decision time as we have been week after week based on my strategy that puts price action in a stall at these upper levels. I will be ready to alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside through social media and my daily outlook; 15 minutes prior to the open.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. Placing a 250 sma on your daily/longer term range charts can be one useful indicator before institutional support and taking in more profit.

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Monday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-27-gc-mml-in-trend

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • YM/ES hit all time highs (11/15 last trading days)
      • NQ lags and grinds upside
    • GOLD/YEN/EURO finish down
    • VIX closes out @ 12.09 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 20 GREEN; 5 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Pending Home Sales: Severely down
    • Fed Speaker Kaplan: growth higher than 2%
    • APPL weekly momentum slowing
  • News
    • POTUS TRUMP meeting with Governers
    • Infrastructure spending
    • US Budget
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: UPTREND

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-28-zs

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Slow moving AM session leads to Euro close sell off and fib recover
      • PM Session momentum  – chop with minimal trend
    • Gold/Yen/Euro drops – same direction as indices?
    • VIX closes out @ 12.92 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 9 GREEN; 16 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • GDP: FLAT
    • Consumer Confidence: UP
  • News
    • Secretary of commerce sworn in
    • Pre-POTUS Address to Congress
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: ES/NQ DOWNTREND; YM CHOP

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

2017-03-01-es-tags-2400

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Super Rally upside to all time highs on post TRUMP address to Congress
      • YM/ES lead, NQ lagged
      • Serious open gap left behind
    • VIX closes out @ 12.54 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List:  22 GREEN; 3 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Personal Income: Up
    • ISM Manufacturing: Up
    • Crude: Build
    • Beige Book: Modest to moderate pace
    • SnapChat IPO $17 
  • News
    • Post POTUS Trump address
    • MCD to have home delivery biz (trading halted today prior to announcement)
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Screenshare divergence of GC/6J/6E up with indices?
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: Chop to SUPERTREND
    • US Session: SuperTrend extension upside

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Thursday

Chart of the Day

2017-03-02-ym-full-session

  • Markets
    • Indices pullback with deeper pullbacks
      • Weekly VWAP holds up on ES/NQ
      • VIX closes out @ 11.81 (down)
    • Cumulative Tick NQ Index holds down
    • Core Sector List:  4 GREEN; 21 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: DOWN
    • SNAP IPO goes Public
  • News
    • Fed speaker Powell going for 100% rate hike odds in March
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Added Weekly VWAP to charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: DOWNTREND

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Friday

Chart of the Day

2017-03-03-top-row-in-sync-upside

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • Globex V reversal
      • Pockets of TREND with deep pullbacks
      • NQ closes out downside gap
      • Indices close out the week above weekly opening price
    • Gold/Yen/Euro rally on Yellen comments
    • VIX closes out @ 10.96 (Down)
    • Core Sector List:  16 GREEN; 9 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • ISM NON-MFG: UP
    • Multiple Fed Speakers: Continue to hint at March rate hike
  • News
    • California School earns 24m off Snap IPO
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Added Monthly VWAP to charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWN/UP
    • US Session: DOWN/UP

Recommended Viewing for March

  • Rated 5 star book on AMAZON on Trading Psychology

trade-mindfully

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

Manual Cover

e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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