Week 8 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.         


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 8 Outlook

the-big-picture-2

Relentless x 7 for 2017!

Seven relentless trending weeks upside in 2017, totaling 15 weeks of nothing but one direction only in the US indices. Add in another three days for week 7 (one extra on the NQ)  pushing higher highs in the last ten days to 7+, is reason enough to label this market as relentless. A runaway train that is simply not entertaining any pullback at this time.

Last week I alluded to an analogy of the market these past weeks like an orange being squeezed for every last pulp. It appears that while the bottom line picture last week was a continued uptrend cautiously, the market continues to desire every last pulp out of this run. So is this to be the week where markets finally eases off? Is week eight of 2017 finally going to be the one that gives us a bit of reprieve and “breathing” room to pullback and let the markets digest the multitudes of factors that have been giving it every reason to at least stall at this point? 

I must say I have been thoroughly entertained by the numerous articles, tweets and posts by the Permabears and to those that finally could not hedge to the short any longer. Article after article on the status of the VIX to HFXAX (small cap futures hedge) on raising cause of why the markets should pullback at this point. Even myself drawn into watching the VIX FEB15 strike calls with Open Interest sitting at 1 million around 20-23. Seemed like a reasonable awareness given the relentless run and thinking perhaps those VIX levels may just rise to be in the money. Then again, perhaps just an insurance hedge in this upside run which ended being out of the money. 

While the intraday charts is all that I need to guide me in the TREND, looking ahead is simply knowing what obstacles in the market may give rise to any course change. One may get in their car on any given day and be prepared to drive down the road on cruise but what lies around the corner will only be known until we arrive and encounter any unforeseen events. Sure, you can decide to simply turn around and go the other way or travel much slower as you drive, but your management both as a driver on the road and as a trader in the market will prepare you for every situation.

Week eight starts off with a holiday session followed by the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Surely the politics out of Washington seem to be playing a role on any given day so being prepared for any comments may just be a tweet away and the catalyst this market has been looking for to pullback. Tax reform announcement in week 9, March contact expiration nearing, GDP, non-farm payrolls, multiple fed reserve speakers and the prospect for a next rate hike are all upcoming economic events that will be on my radar alert.

Technically the trend has been strong and any trend study will surely note the same. As we continue to push at the highs, and looking to the smaller time frames for every inch of how much more it can go, has been my most reliable indicator by use of the Heikin Ashi trend bars on both the range charts and 15/60m MML levels. Plenty of open gaps below, MML, Fib levels and 50/200 day moving averages to retrace to will be easy picking if price is to fall back.

Whether or not you believe this market has been driven by emotion or fundamentals, leaving your bias at where the market should be and simply watching the charts in front of you, will put you in a place of being ready in both directions. As Livermore said it best, we are all looking for someone to tell us what to do in the markets. I encourage you to stop looking for someone to tell you which way the market trend is headed next week as not one single person knows what lies around the corner until we get there. Once we arrive, then we can ALL make a decision to either move ahead and stay the course or turn around and go with the trend and let our winners run and cut the losses short. Unfortunately that is not the nature of many traders.

the-bottom-line

Technical momentum probability CONTINUES to remain at this point to lead us a higher on the indices on the bigger pic in my opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to shake things up downside. It won’t take much! I state with caution as seen in the charts below we are at a technical momentum decision time as we have been week after week based on my strategy that puts price action in a stall at these levels. I will be ready to alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside through social media and daily outlook.

For the Indices ETF or long term holder, different rules may apply as quarterly re-balancing is my preference for managing such markets. Option to move trailing stops to key MML, Fibonacci or moving average levels can lock in more profit if and when a pullback may occur. 

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Monday

Chart of the Day

  • Holiday Session

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-21-6e-globex

  • Markets
    • Indices roll up strong in AM session to retreat just prior to euro close and back up again
      • Gap up after Low Volume Monday session
    • Gold Rally Upside
    • Euro dumps overnight
    • VIX closes out @ 11.57 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 22 GREEN; 3 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • PMI: Down
    • Fed Speakers: Multiple in agreement of multiple hikes for 2017
    • Burger King to buy Popeyes
    • Home Depot: Beats estimates
    • Walmart: Beats
  • News
    • Nothing Earth Shattering
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Solid trend when all charts in SYNC
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: CHOP
    • US Session: UPTREND

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-22-globex-premarket-downtrend

  • Markets
    • Indices breakout to intraday new highs with ES lagging
    • Crude: Intraday drop
    • VIX closes out @ 11.74 (UP)
    • Core Sector List: 13 GREEN; 12 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Home Sales: Increase
    • FOMC Minutes: Rate hike fairly soon
    • TSLA Earnings: Overall beats Estimates
  • News
    • 7 like earth planets found in newly found solar system
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND CHOP

———————————————–

Thursday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-23-nq-preeuro-close

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • AM session sell off. NQ leads with ES. Minimal action on the YM.
      • Mid Session pullback with YM leading followed by ES. NQ lags.
      • VWAP line in the sand
      • Record highs hit again with YM closing above/ NQ and ES pullback
    • VIX closes out @ 11.71 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List: 7 GREEN; 18 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: UP
    • Crude: Build
  • News
    • Rumored news of infrastructure to be pushed back
    • TAXES, TAXES, TAX REFORM after Healthcare
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Picture Perfect trade management on the AM session.
  • Overall Indics Trend:
    • Globex: UPTREND
    • US Session: DOWNTREND

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Friday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-24-3-index-pop

  • Markets
    • Indices
      • NQ chop inside range; Midnight Open Magnet
      • Grinding Uptrend
      • PM Session with late day recovery
    • Gold – Globex solid trend up with pullback on US open
    • VIX closes out @ 11.47 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List:  19 GREEN; 6 RED
  • Economic Highlights
    • New Home Sales: DOWN
    • Consumer Confidence: UP
    • SnapChat IPO Oversubscribed
  • News
    • POTUS Trump speaks at CPAC
    • Executive action on regulation
    • Certain media being blocked from WH
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • ES MML from support to resistance 1st 30m
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNTREND
    • US Session: UPTREND

Recommended Viewing for February

  • Continue 2017 by finding a good video on Trade Discipline.

chatwithtraders

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

Manual Cover

e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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