Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 6

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket 


the-big-picture-2

Did you remember to breathe last week as instructed in last weeks outlook?

Without a doubt it took a lot of patience in week five as a vast amount of data was tossed into the market place to digest one day at a time. Unless you learn to be patient, disciplined and follow your trading plan, the volatility alone would have chewed you up and spit you out. However, if calm and collected, the market served you well with pockets of trend and for the fortunate globex traders, came out way ahead! I know, can be very frustrating entering into a day session after an incredible overnight run, to only chop and pullback on every trend that looks like it’s about to run away.

If you are a follower of my blog, articles and/or daily charts, you are aware of what a high probability setup appears like when price is in momentum. You may also be privy to what it takes to ride a momentum wave once in it. The key for every setup is hoping this is the one. However hoping is not a technical indicator and thus a solid trading plan including a trade management in place to be ready for both directions intraday. 

Being ready for both directions seems to be the ever growing sentiment in the INDICES as an increasing amount of investors in the VIX etf’s pile in and pessimism continues to build as stated by a most recent data poll by AAII.  With market euphoria continuing to hold at new highs and earnings that appear to be doing well, it is no wonder that the interest has peaked that we are in a state of market decision and direction. For the intraday trader, you may wonder on any given day if there are any traders left in the market as volume seems to come to a dead stall for hours. Rest assured, they are there, but with precise timing continue to drive this market in one direction. Permabears are hurting some and can’t wait to hit the flush button but until that moment, we hold the course.

On the economic front for week six, we ease back from last week and market is able to digest the recent data and new earnings coming out. Surely the push up on Friday of the non-farm payrolls was the catalyst the market needed to regain the upper levels. Technically on the charts, we are at a pause from previous highs and without any defining news moment out of Washington or the world at hand, we have room to move up. To the downside continue to monitor the VIX open interest strike prices of 21-23 for Feb15 which may lead the market for a pullback in the next two weeks to key lower MMl levels and open gaps. Watch those first 2.5 hours of the US session, and ONLY use the PM session to manage your earlier entries.

the-bottom-line

Technical momentum probability CONTINUES to remain at this point to lead us a bit higher on the indices “with caution” on the bigger pic in my humble opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to shake things up downside as stated over the last several weeks. At this point it won’t take much! I state with caution as seen in the charts below we are at a technical momentum decision time as we were last week based on my strategy that puts price action in a stall at these levels. 

No harm in holding here as we regained some footing upside after consolidation and rest assured, I will be ready to alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside. 


Outlook Video: 

Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, CL, GC, 6J, 6E


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

  • CHARTS: Weekly, Daily; 4hour

 2-03-17-nq-week-6-outlook


MML Levels (NQ)

mml-nq-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5121.25

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

2-03-17-es-week-6-outlook


MML Levels (ES)

mml-es-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2279.75

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

2-03-17-ym-week-6-outlook


MML Levels (YM)

mml-ym-1-29-16

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 19850

Lowest Open Gap: 15924



IJR – Small Cap ETF

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

  • Buy Point: 53.7 (107.4 prior to split)
  • Gain: 28.57%
  • Price Split (1.19.17)
  • January, 2017 Action
    • Sold off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account


TQQQ – Proshare UltraPr0

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

  • Buy Point: 69.97
  • Gain: 7.9%

ETF Sectors

Coming soon


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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