Week 5 RECAP

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility. You are recommended to make appropriate inquiries and seek appropriate advise before sending money, incurring any expenses, acting on recommendations or entering into any commitment in relation to any reference published here. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.         


Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time….. 

Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.

Markets 

  • YM, ES, NQ (RTH), CL, GC, 6E, 6J

*Results will vary for each individual trader based on market entry/exit and/or live versus simulated environment. 


TREND Charts of the Week 

Looking for the chart of the day means looking for what I call the Golden Setup or simply which chart had the highest probability of price action running in TREND. Whether it ran 20 or 100 ticks, it’s the patience to wait for that setup and trust the entry. This is what I strive each day in the market to wait for in each of my setups.

highest-probability-setup

  • Great examples below of how with ALL charts in sync and price action  with the 50/144ema cloud, a higher probability of momentum following through in TREND 

Daily Recap/Outlook Videos: 

Recap reflective of highest probability setups based on price action crossover of T3-50 and 50/144ema cloud with 1 of 4 possible trade management setups and exit strategies. Market order entries/exit will vary whether simulated or live for each trader. All setups are called out on real time charts in a screenshare room and randomly posted online.

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Week 5 Outlook

Ok everyone…just breathe. 

Between daily White House press conferences and earnings season, we seem to have our hands full. Between those moments, I can’t say much is going on. I can’t remember the last time I have watched a range bar not move for almost two hours. If you enjoy watching paint dry or grass grow, we are in your kind of market. Truth be told, pick any day and you’ll find some micro pocket of trend. That’s all dandy for the day trader like myself, but where is this market overall headed at this point. I know! Half of you want this to drop and the other half are ready to push this higher. My long term portfolio loves this! Yet, all I hear all day long is how the “permabears” are crying out that the sky is falling as we push higher highs.

So what precaution can you take on the long term and what to look for in the market next week?

First, let’s expect continued news bits from Washington that may send mini-ripples throughout the market on any given day. Next up, part two of our F.A.N.G. stocks that may be the catalyst the Nasdaq for it’s next move. Week four earnings gave the NQ enough stamina to remain at the highs. We also close out the month with the FOMC announcement and money managers balancing their mega portfolios.

Now that the YM hit the 20K and markets seem to be content at these levels without any serious pullback as of yet, my concern is over the buildup of bearish sentiment in the market and permabear influence. All it will take is one “not so good” news bit and the cascade is initiated (keep an eye on the WH admin travel ban and China military provocations). Permabears will then inform you, that they told you so. until then, daily observations of the intraday trend are relentless in picking up off the lows and bringing back into value. Technical signs for me of a market not ready to let the “bears” out to play.

As a crumb trader you are at the whim of using your intraday technical charts to leave the emotion aside and be ready for the market to move in either direction. Precautions may include moving stops up and watching internals as in the ADX or the MML levels on multiple time frames. So is this the opportune time to short the market indices? 

Technical momentum probability still remains at this point to leads us higher “with caution” on the bigger pic in my humble opinion if all things remain constant and nothing occurs to shake things up downside as stated over the last several weeks. I state with caution as seen in the charts below we are at a technical momentum decision time based on my strategy that puts price action in a stall at the highs. 

No harm in holding here as we slide sideways and rest assured, I will be ready to alert of the change in trend or continued movement upside.

Watch for AMZN, APPL and FB earnings this week,  The VIX open interest strike prices of 21-23 for Feb15 is something to continue to monitor.

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Monday

Chart of the Day

2017-01-30-3-index-drop-2

  • Markets
    • Indices, Euro sellfoff with partial recovery
    • Core sector list closes with 20 down, 5 up
    • VIX closes out 11.88
    • Open gaps closed on all 3 indices and form new ones upside
    • Crude slight downside
    • Gold gaps up
    • Yen Up
  • Economic Highlights
    • Pending home sales was up
  • News
    • Weekend news of executive immigration plan continues to linger
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • HA bars solid TREND to the short
    • AD lines to the outliers
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNtrend
    • US Session: DOWNtrend

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Tuesday

Chart of the Day

2017-01-31-3-index-pop-at-close

  • Markets
    • Indices mostly quiet prior to APPL earnings
      • AM session drop to PM recovery back to open but finishing under previous close
      • ES closes out at Globex high and Daily Gap
    • Yen all over the place – however good trends.
    • VIX closes out at 11.99
    • Core sector list: 12 UP 13 DOWN
  • Economic Highlights
    • AAPL Data: Upbeat
    • Chicago PMI – DOWN
    • Consumer Confidence – Holding Strong
  • News
    • Pharma meets with POTUS Trump
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Updated Template to keep you in the TREND
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: FLAT
    • US Session: FLAT (Drop & BIG Pop)

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Wednesday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-01-es-post-1-hour-plus

  • Markets
    • Indices drop and pop on multiple announcements today 
    • VIX Closes out at 11.81 (Low of 9.97!)
    • Core Sector closes out 17 in the RED, 8 in the GREEN
    • Crude Lifts
    • Yen, Euro, Gold: Chop and Flat
  • Economic Highlights
    • ADP: Up
    • Mortgage: Down
    • Crude: Inventories UP
    • FOMC: Rates unchanged
    • FB Earnings: Up
  • News
    • SCOTUS nominee announced
    • BREXIT vote in Parliment: Passes
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: UPtrend
    • US Session: FLAT (Drop & Pop)

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Thursday

2-01-17-globex-3-index-drop

Chart of the Day

  • Markets
    • Indices pop in AM session to run it all the way back by the start of mid-session 
      • PM Chop ahead of earnings
    • Euro Trend of the day
    • VIX closes UP
    • Core Sector List: 16 UP; 9 DOWN
  • Economic Highlights
    • Jobless Claims: DOWN
    • Bloomberg Comfort Index: UP
    • AMZN earnings: EPS Beats, Earnings/Sales drop
  • News
    • Iran taunts US inexperience in the WH
  • Charts
    • Pre-market Trend Outlook: Click Here
    • Range bound by the MML levels on the 15m chart
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: DOWNtrend
    • US Session: YM/ES Upside; NQ down

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Friday

Chart of the Day

2017-02-03-premarket

  • Markets
    • Indices continue Rally; YM/ES lead, NQ lags  
    • VIX closes out @ 10.97 (DOWN)
    • Core Sector List: 20 UP; 5 DOWN
    • Crude, Euro, Gold, Yen – CHOP
  • Economic Highlights
    • NFP: Increase
  • News
    • New sanctions on Iran
  • Charts
  • Overall Indices Trend:
    • Globex: Super UPtrend
    • US Session: UPtrend with PM chop

Recommended Viewing for February

  • Continue 2017 by finding a good video on Trade Discipline.

chatwithtraders

Website


One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.

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e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy.

Real-time charts shared daily in screenshare room.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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