Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 2

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket 


BIG PICTURE

2017 rolled in with a dud as the indices found very little traction at first. While there may have been pockets of intraday trend, it was  a waiting game through the week from one report after another leading to the monthly non-farm payrolls report. The catalyst which seemed to make that final push for the week to the highs. High enough for the DOW to miss 20k by 0.37 ticks but good enough for the NQ futures to ring the 5K bell.

#NowWhat

As in any time in the past when indices to continue to push at the highs, there will be an evident of two sides in the market. Those that side with “when at the highs we go higher” and those that persistently are pessimistic and think the market should just crash. While I seek the short side as well, any good pullback is always signs of a healthy market, at some point, prices recover and make higher highs.

In the week to come I expect the YM futures to ring that 20K bell. Volume has returned in the market as multiple fed speakers this week can shake things up in both directions. Watch for Yellen’s speech on Thursday night. I can make the case that price action can lead in either direction at the highs. Do we pullback 50% of last weeks push higher or just a bit higher to shake out all the short hedges in the market? Probability at this point leads us higher on the bigger pic. Any news catalyst can also throw this market in the opposite direction so watch for the daily 50ma or major support on the MML (Murray Math) charts. Earnings season is also upon us with only weeks away from the major players which can sway price action as well. What can I say Jedi traders. Always be ready for both directions intraday. Long term holdings? It’s the start of a new quarter and time to re-balance with the gains of last quarter, time to take some off the top. 


Outlook Video: 

Markets Covered: ES, YM and NQ


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Hourly Chart: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

                          Daily                                                                   Range Chart

2017-01-08-nq-weekly-outlook


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 5078 if we break 5039
  • Downside: 4922 (50ma below)
  • Major S/R: 4843 (50ma in zone) if we break 4882

MML Levels (NQ)

mml-nq

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 4610.75

Lowest Open Gap: 4017



ES – S&P Futures

Hourly Chart: UPTREND

2017-01-08-es-weekly-outlook


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 2312 (watch 2218.25 resisatance)
  • Downside: 2218.75 (50ma in zone) if we break 2250
  • Major S/R: 2125 (200ma above)

MML Levels (ES)

mml-es

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2197.25

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75



YM – DOW Futures

Hourly Chart: UPTREND

2017-01-08-ym-weekly-outlook


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 20313 if we HIT and breakout above 20K
  • Downside: 19375 if we break 19688 (50ma below)
  • Major S/R: 18750

MML Levels (YM)

mml-ym

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 18929

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Current Trend: UPTREND Pullback

2017-01-08-ijr

  • Buy Point: 107.4
  • Gain: 28.31%
  • Next Action: January, 2017
    • Sell off excess of 3% gain for Q4 of 2016.
    • Move into bond account

ETF Sectors

Coming in January, 2017


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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