Technical Momentum Outlook – Week 1

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket 


BIG PICTURE

Whew. 2016 out the door. 

You may have never thought we would make it through the presidential election in one piece and the uncertainty from one fed meeting to another didn’t make for 2016 anything smooth, as markets seemed to eventually consolidate and pullback after the run up on post election results. Coming into 2017, also with the uncertainty of how many fed rate hikes will we be exposed to, though three seems to be the running number at this point. Bring in Brexit, Trumpenomics and the unsettling world civility to one another, may be just what the market is looking for to push in either direction. A call for the pullback to downside open gaps seems to be a reasonable move as much as the desire to ring the upside Dow 20k bell. Starting out in January, look to the Q4 data as it rolls out and our next President steps in the WH to market the start of the 2017. Volume should return as traders emerge from their holiday caves and once again bring some daily momentum to the charts.

Best memory of 2016? Cubs won the World Series.

Looking forward to in 2017? TF Russell to be listed on the CME and for the Cubs to repeat.


Outlook Video: 

Markets Covered: ES, YM and NQ


 Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Hourly Chart: DOWNTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

                          Daily                                                                                     4 hour

2016-12-30-week-1-nq


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 5000 if we break 4961
  • Major S/R: 4844 (50ma in zone)
  • Downside: 4688 (200ma in zone) if we break 4805

Yearly Pic

12-30-16-nq-yearly

—————————————

MML Levels (NQ)

mml-nq

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 4610.75

Lowest Open Gap: 4017


ES – S&P Futures

Hourly Chart: DOWNTREND

2016-12-30-week-1-es


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 2312.5 if we break 2281
  • Major S/R: 2125 
  • Downside: 2125 (50, 200ma above) if we break 2156.25

Yearly Pic

12-30-16-es-yearly

—————————————

MML Levels (ES)

mml-es

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2197.25

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75


YM – DOW Futures

Hourly Chart: DOWNTREND

2016-12-30-week-1-ym


Levels to Watch

  • Upside: 20313 if we HIT and breakout above 20K
  • Major S/R: 18750
  • Downside: 18750 if we break 19063 (50ma above)

Yearly Pic

12-30-16-ym-yearly

—————————————

MML Levels (YM)

mml-ym

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 18929

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Current Trend: UPTREND Pullback

2016-12-30-ijr

  • Buy Point: 107.4
  • Gain: 28.04%
  • Next Action: January, 2017

ETF Sectors

Coming in January, 2017


As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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