Technical Outlook – Week 51

Portion of Article posted HERE @ Seeitmarket


BIG PICTURE

Week 50, the long awaited FOMC announcement and Quad witching to now end off a year that has been filled with uncertainty from the presidential election to the Federal reserve interest rate decisions. Market indices remain at all time highs even with the small pullback on the FOMC announcement as the futures lead higher. As volume now rolls into the March contract the ever looming Dow 20k and NQ 5K  in the scopes upside may just what the market needs to lift just a bit higher. As in any outlook, there is a case to be made for price action in either direction. With countless open gaps below surely at some given time the market will retreat, take profit off the table to key levels. Relentless markets may also continue higher when at the highs. Consolidation in the indices may just be what the market needs at this point for the next move. Being ready in both directions may be your best offense. 

As always, leave your bias at the door of where you think the market should be, watch the charts in front of you and stay away from the Z-Vals. Be ready in both directions. Trend will reveal itself on Heikin Ashi bars and proper trade management will keep you in the trend.

**Disclaimer: Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.


NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Current Trend: Uptrend Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Hourly charts (right) finding support at the 50/144ema cloud and bottom of value on the pullback on Friday. If price action is to break here, look to support downside for a bounce. This would line up with the 4hr Major pivot and top of resistance on the daily. 4863 to the daily 50ma would be the lowest levels at this juncture before the market may find  a buying opportunity. Watch for the breakout above 4941 to a stall at 4960 before heading to 5K.

2016-12-16-nq-mml

Six month view of the NQ off the lows of June, 2016 seen below reaching to the highs of the year as 5K is just a handle away at the resistance above.

2016-12-16-nq-mml-6-months

Zones to Watch

market-outlook-week-51-nq

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 4882.5

Lowest Open Gap: 4017


ES – S&P Futures

Current Trend: Uptrend Pullback

Price action on Friday, finding support off the hourly and 50/144ema may be just what the ES future needs to head upside as the daily upper levels have been breached. Watch the 2265 as the first level of resistance as price heads to 2281 on the 6 month chart below. 2259 is the breakout level to gain momentum to the upside. If unable to hold here and price action breaks down, 2244 is the level to watch. Probability which currently is leading upside, as the hourly 50 is above the 144ema and daily chart holding above the highs. Look to the 6 month chart for the daily long term upper levels if price is to head higher.

2016-12-16-es-mml-2

Appreciation on the 6 month chart as the ES off the support levels downside have climbed to resistance and consolidation in week 50.

2016-12-16-es-mml-6-months

Zones to Watch

market-outlook-week-51-es

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2197.25

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75


YM – DOW Futures

Current Trend: Uptrend Pullback

What will it take to reach the 20K? With price action sitting between two levels on the 6 month chart as the 20K level sits above, it will be the shorter term daily that needs to break out of it’s current hold at the reversal of 19844 and 4 hour overbought level. As the hourly chart pulls back into value and of major support/resistance, any move that is above to hold above 19805, watch for the possible stall at 19844. To make the case for the downside, watch for 19688 as a lower level in week 51. As in the other 2 indices, the probability remains strong to the upside as long as price can hold above the 50/144 hourly cloud and  breakout above resistance at 19863.

2016-12-16-ym-mml

Six month chart off the mid year lows and now nearing the 20K at resistance. Seems to be almost a given at this point that we will ring the bell.

2016-12-16-ym-mml-6-months

Zones to Watch

market-outlook-week-51-ym

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 18929

Lowest Open Gap: 15924


IJR – Small Cap ETF

Current Trend: UPTREND

2016-12-16-flexible_grid-ijr

  • Buy Point: 107.4
  • Gain: 28.91%
  • Next Action: January, 2017

ETF Sectors

Coming in January, 2017


Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.


Don’t forget to view the end-of-the-day charts as momentum in the markets can shift substantially from day to day and reset any charts posted above.


Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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