T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
(click above for additional charts, video & commentary newsletter)
Click Here for a tutorial walk through of the charts above used in the weekly supplemental
Markets covered in the Newsletter above and rotated in the Daily Trend Videos.
Futures: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
ETF Futures: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, FXE, GLD, USO, EEM, TLT
Market Cap Leaders: AAPL, AMZN, SBUX, GOOG, FB, NFLX
Key Indices: SPX, DXY, XAU, XOI
Industrial’s: IYJ, IYT, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV
FX Pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Total Stock Market: IYY, VTI, SCHB
Jason Kelly Index Tier: IJR, MVV
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradingFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on a few select index futures market in the live trading room. It is this traders belief that knowing few markets and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While I still believe that you can trade one market successfully, the four indices which tend to move in tandem offers multiple setups on fewer entries per trading session. The blog review link below is a SUMMARY record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day.
Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
Technical Outlook – Looking at the week ahead…..
Earnings, FOMC, GDP, End of the Month.
Uptrend still intact? Watch for any pullback to 4hr moving averages. Market Cap leaders to set tone with additional 194 (125 posted) SP500 companies reporting. 68% currently exceeding analysts numbers.
Price action at all time highs once again. Where do we go from here?
To actually consider that I would or for that matter, anyone would know where this market may be headed is simply a guess at best. This is why I tend to stay away from actually figuring out if we are headed up or down on any given day and simply observe the charts in front of me. Best to be ready in both directions intraday regardless of the bigger trend.
Now this is without saying that there will be those that speculate that the market will go up and those who will have a vision that it’s going down. Someone will get it right. The one who chose the direction in which the market headed will raise their uncanny ability to predict and the other party will simply slither back under a rock until the next opportunity.
So let’s put all the guessing behind us and look at where the market is currently in a technical setup and what you can be prepared for in both directions.
With the market at all time highs once again, it is no doubt that a resistance of price will exist. In the wake of this move up on post-Brexit vote which has left numerous open gaps below will most likely still be a situation to hound the markets in months to come.
The case for markets to remain upside
Is it possible that in a election year and with the proposal that the central banks are infusing money into the markets will keep the drive alive? Perhaps. From a technical perspective, price action holding above the key T3-50ema’s and 4 hour/daily and weekly charts all upside are the highest factor for me as a technical trader that the market remains in an uptrend. Fibonacci extension levels and NQ open gaps ahead can just be the catalyst for the SPY/SPX or vice versa to continue the drive upside. Also, by the pushing off of any FED decision may just hold us up as well. Leaving the bias out of the market means that regardless of your thoughts of why the market should short for more reasons than to keep it upside, is to simply focus on the charts in trend and momentum.
The case for markets to pullback/short
With as many reasons for the market to push the highs, it also comes with the possibility for a pullback to at least the 50/144ema on the 4 hour charts or daily 50ma’s. Q2 earnings season may be the catalyst for the market to short if the numbers don’t show as expected. From a technical perspective, the open gaps left in the trace of the post Brexit vote to the upside, are the highest probability that price action turns downside but only until the 4 hour charts T3 moving averages on a 10 tick range chart turn downtrend.
Always be ready in both directions on an intraday. If the initial setup is missed, wait for the pullback on a smaller time frame. Example: setup on a 50 tick and 15m to be in the same momentum as the 4 hour chart.
While I could make any hypothesis where I think price action may continue, truth be told, I can only hope that it will continue the trend that it currently is in and always be ready for both directions. The best of setups will be on initial crossovers or pullbacks of the T3 moving averages on a 4 hour chart followed through by the intraday setup from a 10 to 50 tick range setting. I will always look for the 50/144ema on a 4 hour chart and 50/200sma on a daily for resistance or support. It is the Heikin Ashi bars that keep me in the trend on any given day, whether it be intraday or for the long term.
In the end, many traders simply want to be told when to get in and when to get out. All I can give you is the highest probability of success that a market will continue in momentum. What I can tell you, is that you don’t need to spend hoards of dollars to have someone tell you that it’s time to get into a trade when its easily seen with the tools and studies right in front of you that will return the same result. See my article here. The decision is ultimately yours of whether you are willing to take the risk. Isn’t that what the market is about…risk of the unknown?
Until then, always ready in both directions.
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare