T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
(click above for additional charts, video & commentary newsletter)
Click Here for a tutorial walk through of the charts above used in the weekly supplemental
Futures: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
ETF Futures: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, FXE, GLD, USO, EEM, TLT
Market Cap Leaders: AAPL, AMZN, SBUX, GOOG, FB, NFLX
Key Indices: SPX, DXY, XAU, XOI
Industrial’s: IYJ, IYT, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV
FX Pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Total Stock Market: IYY, VTI, SCHB
Jason Kelly Index Tier: IJR, MVV
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradingFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on a few select index futures market in the live trading room. It is this traders belief that knowing few markets and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While I still believe that you can trade one market successfully, the four indices which tend to move in tandem offers multiple setups on fewer entries per trading session. The blog review link below is a record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day.
Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
Technical Outlook – Looking at the week ahead…..
You may think that with summer trading upon us, markets would be at their lowest volume.
Quite the contrary!
With the results of BREXIT out and the aftermath to surely continue to bring some volatility to the market. In addition, an election year and the uncertainty of when the FED will raise rates, can lead any investor/trader to wonder what comes next. Best bet? Watch the intraday charts for entries of highest probability in the direction of trend on the higher time frames.
With the BREXIT results shaking the market short, it was not as alarming for price rebounded off the lows of price action from only weeks ago. Majority of charts which are primarily in an uptrend on the daily and weekly, showed only signs of a pullback on the 4 hour charts. With those charts that broke the trend on the 4 hour, found support on the daily and weekly, still keeping intact the upside trend.
Pullback on the 4 hour charts across the future indices/etf with continued momentum on the higher time frames still remain in the GREEN and upside. Gold and 20 year bonds strongest of all to the upside. Crude, while continuing to be in a weekly downtrend, finding itself in a chop pattern in an upward trend on the lower time frame.
Market cap leaders with AMZN still leading the way, I see no setup anytime for the LONG yet on the remaining 5 as they are showing signs of weakness on both the 4 hour and daily charts. Of course, the short position is working quite well.
Overall total market indices still remains strong on higher time frames with key moving averages holding support and all in a long technical momentum. Common thread across the majority of industry ETF’s are in a pullback on the short term in a big pic long term upside trend.
Hum Buzz in the back of the minds of recession in 2017. Perhaps or just talk, pullbacks are always welcome to go close out former open gaps to only move higher….and is exactly what appears to be happening.
Whether it will determine what may or may not happen, welcome some volatility into the market. Based on current technical momentum, the following probability exists for continued direction. Always be ready in both directions on an intraday. If the initial setup is missed, wait for the pullback on a smaller time frame. Example: setup on a 50 tick and 15m to be in the same momentum as the 4 hour chart.
To give you a more detailed insight into the posted charts, click on the supplemental newsletter in which I add to the static visual of the already posted momentum charts and add to your knowledge base of what to look for, both ahead and behind.
While I could make any hypothesis where I think price action may continue, truth be told, I can only hope that it will continue the trend that it currently is in and always be ready for both directions. The best of setups will be on initial crossovers or pullbacks of the T3 moving averages on a 4 hour chart followed through by the intraday setup from a 10 to 50 tick range setting. I will always look for the 50/144ema on a 4 hour chart and 50/200sma on a daily for resistance or support. It is the Heikin Ashi bars that keep me in the trend on any given day, whether it be intraday or for the long term.
In the end, many traders simply want to be told when to get in and when to get out. All I can give you is the highest probability of success that a market will continue in momentum. What I can tell you, is that you don’t need to spend hoards of dollars to have someone tell you that it’s time to get into a trade when its easily seen with the tools and studies right in front of you that will return the same result. See my article here. The decision is ultimately yours of whether you are willing to take the risk. Isn’t that what the market is about…risk of the unknown?
Until then, always ready in both directions.
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare