T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Futures Recap/Outlook Video:
Markets Covered: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
(click above for additional charts, video & commentary)
Click Here for a tutorial walk through of the charts above used in the weekly supplemental
Futures: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
ETF Futures: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, FXE, GLD, USO, EEM, TLT
Market Cap Leaders: AAPL, AMZN, SBUX, GOOG, FB, NFLX
Key Indices: SPX, DXY, XAU, XOI
Industrial’s: IYJ, IYT, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV
FX Pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Total Stock Market: IYY, VTI, SCHB
Jason Kelly Index Tier: IJR, MVV
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradingFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on a few select index futures market in the live trading room. It is this traders belief that knowing few markets and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While I still believe that you can trade one market successfully, the four indices which tend to move in tandem offers multiple setups on fewer entries per trading session. The blog review link below is a record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day as well as in the video review link above.
Looking at the week ahead…..
Major earnings now out. FOMC April meeting over (minutes to follow in late May). GDP out. End of the month over. Just over a solid month of the June contract left. Time flies when the market moves and that is exactly the way we ended on Friday. Start of the month may mean buying or simply just trading the charts in front of you and waiting for the intraday trend. Why even try to attempt to guess which way we are headed as it is a 50/50 chance we go in either direction. Half of you will say up. Half will say down.
Big pic? Short term momentum is in a pullback with the overall big pic remains in an uptrend
For the short to long term, with the pullback on Thursday and Friday may find an intraday opportunity on a higher time frame to go long if it presents itself as the majority of daily to weekly charts remain in an upwards trend. NQ leading index to the downside. As reviewed in the weekly video, watch for Fibonacci levels for support and open gaps below for support. Crude hanging at the current highs with at least what I believe may have a bit more room to climb however with two key open gaps, probability may eventually lead to go close those out. VIX now at the 144ema on a 4 hour chart with a T3 cross upside yet remains with an overall momentum to the downside. VIX moves down, market moves up.
To give you a more detailed insight into the posted charts, click on the supplemental newsletter in which I add to the static visual of the already posted momentum charts and add to your knowledge base of what to look for, both ahead and behind.
While I could make any hypothesis where I think price action may continue, truth be told, I can only hope that it will continue the trend that it currently is in and always be ready for both directions. The best of setups will be on initial crossovers or pullbacks of the T3 moving averages on a 4 hour chart followed through by the intraday setup from a 10 to 50 tick range setting. I will always look for the 50/144ema on a 4 hour chart and 50/200sma on a daily for resistance or support. It is the Heikin Ashi bars that keep me in the trend on any given day, whether it be intraday or for the long term.
In the end, many traders simply want to be told when to get in and when to get out. All I can give you is the highest probability of success that a market will continue in momentum. What I can tell you, is that you don’t need to spend hoards of dollars to have someone tell you that it’s time to get into a trade when its easily seen with the tools and studies right in front of you that will return the same result. See my article here. The decision is ultimately yours of whether you are willing to take the risk. Isn’t that what the market is about…risk of the unknown?
Until then, always ready in both directions.
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare