T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Markets Covered: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
(click above for additional charts and commentary)
Click Here for a tutorial walk through of the charts above used in the weekly supplemental
Futures: ES, YM, TF, NQ, CL, GC, 6E
ETF Futures: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, FXE, GLD, USO, EEM, TLT
Key Indices: SPX, DXY, XAU, XOI
Industrial’s: IYJ, IYT, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV
FX Pairs: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBPUSD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
Total Stock Market: IYY, VTI, SCHB
Jason Kelly Index Tier: IJR, MVV
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradingFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on a few select index futures market in the live trading room. It is this traders belief that knowing few markets and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While I still believe that you can trade one market successfully, the four indices which tend to move in tandem offers multiple setups on fewer entries per trading session. The blog review link below is a record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day as well as in the video review link above.
In conjunction with the index futures, the ETF’s including GLD, USO and FXE are an opportunity to not be just traded intraday but for the short or long term as well. Combined with the Jason Kelly 3% re-balancing can make for a very powerful strategy. Timing is everything when it comes to the markets and being ready for the momentum crossover can put you into a long term trade and learning how to remain in the TREND is the goal.
The WEEKLY SUPPLEMENTAL gives you the snapshot picture which may just give you an additional tool or edge to your timing in the market. Included will also be industry ETF’s and current technical trend in the future.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for futures, I review the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
CLICK HERE for the weekly supplemental that includes the technical momentum of each of the markets mentioned above.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in April every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…..
With earnings season wrapping up and the big APPL and FB to report this week should move the market some. FOMC meeting, GDP and end of the month window dressing to add to the second half of the week. As index markets retreated some last week, the ES and YM at the 50 ema on a four hour chart will be the first test for support where it currently sits. NQ will need to work a bit to get back upside with a bit more of a confirmed uptrend on the short pic. Looking for Crude to hit the open gap above. If not, will retreat to open gaps below. Watch the VIX upside at the 50 ema as it continues to be in a downtrend and pay heed to the open gaps in both directions and 600 day VPOC as a magnet for consolidation until the market is ready to move. As always, respect the Fibonacci support lines on any time frame for price action counter-trend.
While I could make any hypothesis where I think price action may continue, truth be told, I can only hope that it will continue the trend that it currently is in and always be ready for both directions. The best of setups will be on initial crossovers or pullbacks of the T3 moving averages on a 4 hour chart followed through by the intraday setup from a 10 to 50 tick range setting. I will always look for the 50/144ema on a 4 hour chart and 50/200sma on a daily for resistance or support. It is the Heikin Ashi bars that keep me in the trend on any given day, whether it be intraday or for the long term.
In the end, many traders simply want to be told when to get in and when to get out. All I can give you is the highest probability of success that a market will continue in momentum. What I can tell you, is that you don’t need to spend hoards of dollars to have someone tell you that it’s time to get into a trade when its easily seen with the tools and studies right in front of you that will return the same result. See my article here. The decision is ultimately yours of whether you are willing to take the risk. Isn’t that what the market is about…risk of the unknown?
It is my hope in the weeks to come, to give you a more detailed insight into the posted charts in the supplemental through a weekly video that will add to the static visual of the already posted momentum charts and add to your knowledge base of what to look for, both ahead and behind.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare