T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
(click above for additional charts and commentary)
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradignFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on just one index futures market in the live trading room. It is this authors belief belief that knowing one market and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While one week rotations may not suffice in becoming a master of one, the four indices which tend to move in sync, brings about a bigger picture of what may play out in one market is generally occurring in the other (this does not negate the fact that mastery in the NQ would make you a master at the ES or vice versa). The blog review link below is a record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day as well as in the video review link above.
In conjunction with the index futures, the ETF’s including GLD, USO and FXE are an opportunity to not be just traded intraday but for the short or long term as well. Combined with the Jason Kelly 3% re-balancing can make for a very powerful strategy. Timing is everything when it comes to the markets and being ready for the momentum crossover can put you into a long term trade and learning how to remain in the TREND is the goal.
The WEEKLY SUPPLEMENTAL gives you the snapshot picture which may just give you an additional tool or edge to your timing in the market. Included will also be industry ETF’s and current technical trend in the future.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for futures, I review the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
CLICK HERE for the weekly supplemental that includes the technical momentum of each of the markets mentioned above.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in April every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…..
…and a rally we shall go.
Between Kenneth Polcari’s AM newsletter and Jason Kelly’s Macro weekly newsletter to keep my sanity in the irrational markets and keep me focused on the charts at hand, regardless of where I thing the market should be. Tall standing order, I know but if mastered or at least and apprentice to this thinking, you will find your intraday setups that much easier to take.
So why do I even bother to have an outlook if I have no clue of where we are headed next week? I simply am ready for both directions. I have a big picture of where the technical momentum is leading. I know what lies ahead. I know what is behind me.Leading will always have pullbacks. An opportunity to enter and ride the trend.
With the contract expiration behind us on the four major futures index, and the majority of volume now in the current contract, we start to head into earnings season which may chop this market along. Back to some of the highs of 2015. You may start to wonder if the market will remain at these highs in an election year and the Fed will do what it needs to do to keep it propped up.
We are nearing into a zone of 2015 highs, several 200 moving averages behind us, some ahead and one sitting right on it (NQ). Open gaps below remain which unfortunately does mean at some point this market will retrace. Many of the daily charts now in the green and weekly charts now as well. Monthly charts will need some time to revert back upside. The key chart which gives me a good short term picture, the 4 hour chart on all 4 indices is clearly in a technical bullish momentum.
Do we continue this drive? No clue. On each individual chart as reviewed in the weekly supplemental newsletter and video recap, we appear to be at or approaching key levels which could go in either direction. The big picture is bullish with plenty of room for a pullback to key moving averages on both the daily and 4 hour charts. Watch for 600 day points of control to be a magnet as price migrates upside or if extend beyond returns to that level
Crude now in a bullish trend upside. What a turnaround to the upside as we close out open gaps from prior months. If a bullish trend remains, an upside level I believe we would hold at may be at the 44 level with the possibility of a stretch up to 50. Pullbacks to 32-35 downside with at least closing the open gap at 38.63. Watch for the breakout above the daily 200ma.
Index ETF’s running with the futures upside with price action. IWM and QQQ the laggers as the T3 moving averages in a Bullish trend in a bearish 50/144ema. Remaining indices ALL in the green. As always, watch for the pullbacks to prior moving averages on the 4 hour chart.
Market cap leaders with FB the strongest technically followed by GOOG and SBUX to the Bullish side. AMZN struggling to break upside as double resistance at the 144ema. Tighten those seat belts Jedi traders. Earnings season not too far off. Best time to enter? Wait for the T3 crossover on a 4 hour chart in sync with the 50/144ema moving averages.
Combined with fundamentals and what you believe to be a price of value based on your own criteria, watch for at least the technical cross of the T3 moving averages on a higher time frame and the four hour chart to put you in good position. While I do not look for intraday setups, using the T3 strategy is useful as a trading tool in looking for momentum in price action and remaining in the trend. Whether you go short or long in the market, wait for the highest probability when ALL charts are in sync.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
Trading Room Futures Index Focus of Next Week: ES
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
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