Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time…..
Good trading is always going back over the trading day and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Market Traded: TF (RTH)
Total: 30 setups; 509 Ticks NET
Monday
Stats: 7 setups, 80 ticks
Coming off the rally that set the market in an uptrend heading into contract rollover week, the 4 hour chart on the left clearly in a technical momentum uptrend with the 50ema above the 144 and slight pullback heading into the Monday open. The daily chart on the right still in a downtrend with the T3 cross upside into the 50/200 moving average gap in conjunction with the 50/144ema on the left uptrend. Technical momentum? Higher probabilty to continue upside if we cross back upside on the T3 averages on the right. Otherwise, pullback to the 50ema on a 4 hour chart for support. Either way, trade the charts in front of you and not where I think I would like price to go.
Setup to the upside on a higher probability with the AD line in the green and the 50/144ema on a 1m chart. By the rules. 1 contract off and 1 runner.
Stopped out on the crossover. With the 50ema still above the 144ema, probability of re-entry good if price can break back above the 13ema and the AD line above the pivot. Four charts in the green. Looks good.
Good all the way to the daily projection levels. At the end of the day, it’s nothing more than a line on the chart. The management of the trade is learning to identify the higher probability and remaining in the trend.
One more push higher and exit on the cross downside under the 50ema to the 144.
To reflect on the session, where the 50/144ema was clearly in a technical momentum to the upside, you may wonder why I don’t remain in the trend all the way up from the entry form the market open. Answer is simple. My trade management rules remain the same regardless of the trend. We don’t know what will happen to the right of the chart so I manage what is in front of me at the time. While I may hold on a bit longer in the trend, I like any other trader will want as many ticks out of any setup before coming back to B/E.
Always ready in both directions. Keep that bias out of your head.
Tuesday
Stats: 7 setups, 165 ticks
With yesterdays late day selloff, the trend continued to the south with one setup after another. With the move on the pullback on the 4 hour chart, the 50ema appeared to be a likely level that price may retrace to.
Once again, the 50/144ema in Trend with clearly only one direction to keep you in the trend or for increased probability for re-entry.
Try and try again on higher probability setups until I get a runner. That is the approach I take to the market each day.
Tinkering with the 50/144ema to a higher time frame, removes the noise of the 1m chart and can keep the bigger picture in trend.
That is exactly where the big trend took us. Just shy of the 50ema on the 4 hour chart.
Wednesday
Stats: 7 setups, 48 ticks (1 Flat)
After hours on Tuesday’s price action took care of unfinished business by tapping the 50ema and finding support. Where did this move start? The T3/50tick cross on the middle chart keeping the trend down to the 50ema. While the bigger picture plays well for the short term holder, it is the intraday setups that relies on the 50/144ema 1m chart.
One attempt after another to gain some traction was only to succumb to 2 tick wins as price action was completely range bound. By the end of the session, 24 ticks seemed to be all that would be the best for the day.
…until that last setup into the close to double the number on a 3 chart confirmation and break above the 50/144ema.
Thursday
Stats: 4 setups, 113 ticks
Contract rollover on the charts, clearly not expecting any trend whatsoever as volume split between contracts until at least tomorrow. With ECB news out, it obviously had no prejudice to either contract and down we went. What a ride on limited entries and trade management by the rules.
Revisiting the 50/144ema on a 1m vs 2m chart on the right.When in trend, taking a step back on the 50/144ema higher time frame can keep the trend momentum noise aside.
Friday
Stats: 5 setups, 103 ticks (1 loss)
Hoping for volume to leverage to the June contract and FOMC meeting next week, whether the move was positioning or not, the signals were clear for the setup to the long. With the frist setup 2 tick win and second loss to put me in the red, it was patience to wait for the next setup, get back into the green plus some. If only…right? If only I could have remained in the trend all day to the fib projection level. Doesn’t work that way. I manage the trade and exit at a level based on a combination of momentum and probability of trend decreasing. 10% setup. 90% trade management. We spend so much time on finding the setup and yet not enough trades focus on when to exit.
Ending the week off in the green with the 50/144ema 1m chart all upside once again showed the domineering picture of when a market is in trend, we all have a choice of what keeps us in. It is the combination of the Heikin Ashi bars and the 50/144ema that what I have come to believe a solid strategy to remain in longer in an intraday setup than the average in/out setup.
Big Picture Wrap Up
Price action was able to rebound after breaking below the 50ema on the 4 hour chart (left) and cross back up to give a technical momentum to the green on both sets of moving averages. The daily chart (right) price action in the 50/200 gap and 50/144ema gap leading into next week with some clear lines in the sand to hurdle to confirm a daily trend change. The picture going into the week was pullback momentum to the short which ended up carrying out on the intraday setup. With the rally back upside, look for the follow through on the daily chart and 144ema resistance ahead.
This will be the last week on the TF until the CME retains all the trading rights to the emini Russell. Watching the TF only once every 4 weeks, I could not justify the new ICE fees and will be replacing the rotation with the Euro until that time. The TF will be missed however I will still post weekly charts for the big picture.
Focus session for Next Week: YM
