T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
(click above for additional charts and commentary)
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Each week, the TradignFibz strategy is put to work by focusing on just one index futures market in the live trading room. It is this authors belief belief that knowing one market and knowing it well, enables you to become a master versus spread out across various markets. While one week rotations may not suffice in becoming a master of one, the four indices which tend to move in sync, brings about a bigger picture of what may play out in one market is generally occurring in the other (this does not negate the fact that mastery in the NQ would make you a master at the ES or vice versa). The blog review link below is a record to see what may have been going through my mind on any given day as well as in the video review link above.
In conjunction with the index futures, the ETF’s including GLD, USO and FXE are an opportunity to not be just traded intraday but for the short or long term as well. Combined with the Jason Kelly 3% re-balancing can make for a very powerful strategy. Timing is everything when it comes to the markets and being ready for the momentum crossover can put you into a long term trade and learning how to remain in the TREND is the goal.
The WEEKLY SUPPLEMENTAL gives you the snapshot picture which may just give you an additional tool or edge to your timing in the market. Included will also be industry ETF’s and current technical trend in the future.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for futures, I review the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
CLICK HERE for the weekly supplemental that includes the technical momentum of each of the markets mentioned above.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in April every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…..
Last week we left off with….Decision time.
That’s exactly how we played it out and rally we went.
End of the month trading behind us, Beige Book out, increased Non-Farm payrolls, contract rollover approaching and FOMC approaching makes for more curiosity of do we hold upside or retrace to key moving averages? Best part is I don’t have to know. I simply trade the charts in front of me for the intraday momentum. For the short or long term the entry was clear and we are still upside.
Big picture for the 4 index futures is contract rollover. With many platforms rolling over on Thursday and volume still in the March contract, pay caution until next Monday for the majority of the balance to shift considerably into the June contract.
Overall technical momentum leading into the week continues to be Bullish with support below to watch for @ the 50ema’s on the 4 hour 50/144ema charts as well as the 200 period moving averages not too far off. Open gaps above are viable levels as well as 600 day volume points of control.
Crude still remains in a technical bearish trend on the big picture through this rally. Price crossed over the 50/144ema on the 4 hour chart and 50ema, makes the upside open gaps viable zones to close.
Index ETF’s running with the futures upside with price action now on the 4 hour chart at the 144ema on a 4 hour chart. Line in the sand? If the short term charts continue to pull upside, this will bring the 4 hour chart above the 144ema which would give the market a technical momentum that leans heavier to the long side. Remember to always watch for the 200 ma.
Market cap leaders with AMZN the strongest technically followed by FB and GOOG to the Bullish side. Looking to splice in means catching a ride intraday on the highest probability continued trend with ALL 4 charts in sync. With a market in short term rally, the short term picture in consolidation and if price holds above the 144em on a 4 hour chart, would offer a potential setup upside.
Combined with fundamentals and what you believe to be a price of value based on your own criteria, watch for at least the technical cross of the T3 moving averages on a higher time frame and the four hour chart to put you in good position. While I do not look for intraday setups, using the T3 strategy is useful as a trading tool in looking for momentum in price action and remaining in the trend. Whether you go short or long in the market, wait for the highest probability when ALL charts are in sync.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
Trading Room Futures Index Focus of Next Week: TF
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare