T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Two months down. Ten more to go. Not sure I can take anymore of this uncertainty.
Just kidding. This is the stock market. It’s all about uncertainty which makes it an adventure each day. Oh what an adventure it has been. Sell of January into rally February which has made the end of the month a questionable window dressing as we approach contract expiration or are things actually looking up?
In the end it doesn’t matter what I think or for that matter what anyone thinks. The bottom line is trading the charts in front of you for an intraday trader and being on the side with the highest probability of the setup continuing in TREND. To that fact, I was put to the test almost each session this last week on the ES.
With the Sunday open gaping up significantly on all 4 indices, the chase was on to break through upside and go grab the 50 and 200 moving averages or turn south and close out the gaping wounds left from the previous Fridays close. The ultimate test was siting through and with much patience, waiting for the setup that would run. Which one would it be? Only and only when the charts lined up, would I enter. Where there setups that caught me? Sure! Where there setups were I was so set that price action would run? Sure. did they all work out? Nope. However the ones that did, paid off substantially in ticks and as a trend trader, regardless of which indicator you use to identify a strong trend, would have kept you in.
In conjunction with the index futures, the ETF’s including GLD, USO and FXE are an opportunity to not be just traded intraday but for the short or long term as well. Combined with the Jason Kelly 3% re-balancing can make for a very powerful strategy. Timing is everything when it comes to the markets and being ready for the momentum crossover can put you into a long term trade and learning how to remain in the TREND is the goal. Watching the weekly video and the upcoming newsletter that will give you the snapshot picture may just give you an additional tool or edge to your timing in the market. Included will also be industry ETF’s and current technical trend.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for futures, I review the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
Watch the video above for a chart by chart walk through. Beginning in March I will also begin a weekly newsletter that will include a big picture technical momentum of each of the mentioned above.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in April every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…..
With end of the month trading, contract rollover, price at key moving averages, open gaps above and below, FOMC meeting approaching….and the list goes on. Can make your spin head that you may never take an entry and that is why I leave it to the 50/144ema chart to guide me in the TREND on any chart on an intraday basis, regardless of the bigger picture. I could tell you that the market will be going up this week and I have a 50/50 chance of being right. Sounds like any guru out there. So….remember to leave your bias at the door and trade the charts in front of you and watch for key momentum levels. Overall technical momentum leading into the week is Bullish with support below to watch for @ the 50ema’s on the 4 hour 50/144ema charts.
Crude closing out the open gap at 33.74 and now at the 50ema, still remains in a technical bearish trend on the big picture . Talking of production cuts continues to move the market in violent swings in price. Price crossing over the 50/144ema with the trend still in the RED will be the key chart I will watch to see if there is any hope of upside momentum. Open gaps remain above at 36.71 and 48.74 will be in my scopes.
Index ETF’s like the futures at key levels of resistance. Short term positions looking GREEN with the 144ema’s straight ahead on the daily and 4 hour charts that can be of some significant resistance. Would prefer the pullback and re-entry upside to follow through resistance to pull upside and carry the weekly momentum. Until then, nothing more than a short term rally at this point.
Market cap leaders split as AMZN and FB the strongest technically to the Bullish side. Looking to splice in means catching a ride intraday on the highest probability continued trend with ALL 4 charts in sync. SBUX following on the heels and the remaining three attempting to rally with some significant moving average levels that I would watch for.
Combined with fundamentals and what you believe to be a price of value based on your own criteria, watch for at least the technical cross of the T3 moving averages on a higher time frame and the four hour chart to put you in good position. While I do not look for intraday setups, using the T3 strategy is useful as a trading tool in looking for momentum in price action and remaining in the trend. Whether you go short or long in the market, wait for the highest probability when ALL charts are in sync.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
Trading Room Futures Index Focus of Next Week: NQ
Video Link to Trading Room members series on Fib Projection Levels
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare