Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time…..
Good trading is always going back over the trading day and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Market Traded: YM (RTH)
Total: 16 setups; 369 Ticks NET
Stats: 7 setups, 149 ticks.
Wait for it. Wait for it. Patience for the first 12 minutes in chop till price action could not push above the 50/144ema and with the AD line turning a 180, that was enough to take the short. 1st contract off. HA bars all in TREND. To the NVPOC and bounce…Good enough for me. I’m OUT. Wait for the re-entry downside, as price action may perhaps continue as the GAP up from Fridays action may flush downside. Until trend change, will focus to the short.
To the short we go once again as price was not able to break momentum of the 13ema and keeping to the technical momentum to the short. Just trade the charts in front of you.
Setup #3. With confirmation of an eventual TREND change, I wasn’t able to catch the initial move as not enough confirmation on the charts and price was continuing to move upside on all charts. AD line lifting, I went to a 5-4 Flex Renko and entered.
ALL 4 charts in the GREEN. 50 above 144ema is all I needed to remain in the trend.
Not a bad exit as price action continued to chop at the highs even with the technical momentum remaining to the BULL side.
Stats: 1 setup, 136 ticks.
FOMC minutes today. All it took was one pullback and mother market went long and I went for the ride. After price action held up off the 50ema and ALL 4 charts in sync with the 13ema also for support, it was all the way to the projection level.
Once again, it is not always about the entire move but a piece of the pie or riding the wave to ride another one. With some chop at the average high/projection level and pre-FOMC minutes release, controlled setups to the upside which I simply decided to stay out of.and not give back the fruits of the AM session. All great setups.
Pay heed as the market rallies, Serious Open Gaps are being left behind. You know what that means. YUP, eventually they will ALL be closed.
Stats: 3 setups, 78 ticks.
Globex Bullish. Holding above the 144ema on a 4 hour 50/144ema chart. Seems we are in a rally of sorts. Oh yes. MAJOR open gaps as seen above in Wednesdays post. Leave the bias at the door. Trade the charts and that is exactly the setup we had. Short entry and with ALL 4 charts in sync to keep me in the TREND on the crude report that moved so quickly at 1 point with 2 contracts on was actually up 74 ticks in 3 seconds.
Setup #2. Barely able to get moving as the fib projection remained below. Sticking to trade management as you never now just how far up price may retrace. Try, Try again.
Retrace it did indeed and with one more setup in sights to the fib projection level. Done. Out. Finished.
The playbook for the rest of the session while it appeared to have the momentum to continue south,price action held up at the fib projection level
Through the mid-session with price action attempting to push it higher, with no success finally resumed its course downside. Note that while the price pulled back with some considerate ticks, the 50/144ema remained in the RED, indicating that today’s session wasn’t ready to continue the the rally theme of the week.
Once again, back down to the fib projection level and one line after another with a formidable defense of resistance.
Breaking back upside with what was resistance now support, helping any moves back to the upside on the range chart setups.
That wasn’t enough. Price action found its way back downside into the close with one last setup to the short back down to the fib projection zone and back upside to HIT and close right under the 144ema. Day in& Day out, the 50/144ema still remains to be a guide as well as a symbolic market internal as to where price action may lead next if unable to break the counter trend. Once in TREND, it also serves to keep you in longer than you could have possibly imagined for an intraday setup…or maybe you can believe.
Stats: 5 setups, 6 ticks. (2 losses)
Pop and DROP. Looking great but no setup on the higher time frame. $TICK was never above 200 and yet price action was going up at the start. It was clear with the AD line in the RED, the momentum was SHORT and all I needed was an entry on a lower time frame.
FINALLY….price entry at the lows and to the Fib projection level. With the 50 below 144 and ALL 4 chart sin sync, probability was still downside and so I let the 2 contracts run together. Price action never looked back. Bette management would have been to take off 1 at the FP level and exit at the crossover or stop at B/E +2.
All looked great to the upside. Setup on a 6-3, $TICK in the 700. Going Nowhere. What did I miss? That’s right. AD line smacked right into the 750 line. Why did I hang on? With the 50 holding above the 144ema and constantly finding support, there was a probability of TREND continuing. Better management? Price retraced back to my entry twice and without the AD line pushing above the 750, should have just flattened at break even.
…and back to the upside Fib projection level on a re-entry after price never looked back off the projection level below. We also never went higher.
With 2 losses and still in the RED, I realized that any further setup was either going to have to be a scalp in/out or simply wait for the probability that had as many charts setup in TREND and the volume drove it outside of value. As it stood by mid-session, value area on the volume profile was in the extension from Wednesdays price action. Choppy and messy for now.
My 3 $ense Recap of the week on the YM:
7 weeks in and RALLY we go….and FIZZLE. With Monday holiday and lighter volume, Tuesday session with some fantastic setups to the short to only close out at Monday’s GAP. Market can’t seem to make up its mind.Gaping up on Wednesday and Thursday not ready to roll higher or lower, left Friday with decision day for the week. Indecision day it was as market action simply was in hold of not being able to go in either direction. Seems the TF Russell was able to close out the major open gap below but the other three were not interested.
Trading the YM this week reminded me of the momentum moves of the TF but at 1/2 the contract size. While it sometimes takes a day to get back into a “new” market, the TREND is the same whatever market you choose to trade. Of course I will never be a fan of the volatility that when price action looks like it will run, and 4 bars reverse before continuing takes me out, I either learn to adapt or simply accept that all I got was a piece of the pie. That sums up the week on the YM. Clearly not as good as the others but at least a piece of good setups and learning to just bounce back patiently forma losing session on Friday.
As I do each week remind myself and Jedi Traders alike, the 50/144ema technical momentum chart remains to be a constant foundation in whether TREND is moving or remaining flat which is a great reminder to stay out of the market. This theory was tested to the extreme on Friday which at one point you simply have to say…it’s just not going to happen today. Patience is the key if you want to make the ticks and not just hit the in/out button all day. Always looking for moves for 50+ tick runs takes more discipline.
Till next week….
Good Day, Good night and Good Trading.