T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Futures: Looking at the week behind…..
Six weeks into the year and these five days had volatility and flatness written ALL over it. Not just on the TF but all 3 indices.There is a price to pay when you rotate each week on a futures index for the sake of the trading room as I most likely miss out on some superb setups on any other given week. Be that as it may, with Janet Yellen testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, price session overnight gaping down and never going higher made for some very tough sessions, especially for an intra-day TREND trader.
Finding pockets of opportunity may mean waiting and waiting and waiting for the setup until everything looks perfect…and then the trade does a 180 on you. Yes, that did occur and most probably the core reason for the majority of any losses this week. However, when the trend did run this week, it made up quite substantially for any of the losses and continuing with the same premise of last weeks strategy of leaving two contracts on to the projection level, paid off. After Thursday’s down session, Friday Globex was in the GREEN, closing out the gap from Wednesday price action downside, clearly wasn’t the runaway train type of day….and so ending the week on no great finish but knowing that I was able to find pockets in TREND on a volatile and very much inside value week of trading.
In conjunction with the index futures, the ETF’s including GLD, USO and FXE are an opportunity to not be just traded intraday but for the short or long term as well. Combined with the Jason Kelly 3% re-balancing can make for a very powerful strategy. Timing is everything when it comes to the markets and being ready for the momentum crossover can put you into a long term trade and learning how to remain in the TREND is the goal. Watching the weekly video and the upcoming FREE newsletter that will give you the snapshot picture may just give you an additional tool or edge to your timing in the market.
Equities: Market Cap Leaders
Utilizing the same T3 strategy for futures, I review the top 6 Market Cap Leaders and assess current market TREND opportunities for NFLX, FB, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL and SBUX. Whether you trade the options, swing or intraday position, the big picture will allow you to assess potential greater probability entries based on market momentum.
Watch the video above for a chart by chart walk through starting at about 22:00. Beginning in March I will also begin a FREE weekly newsletter that will include the weekly analysis of each of the mentioned above.
As a follower of @Jasonkelly for some long term strategies, I will begin in March every month to review some of the holdings that can be easily managed 4 times per year without concerning yourself over the intraday volatility of the market.
Looking at the week ahead…..
Hopefully not a repeat of this last week, price action lifting on Friday may give us a small rally if we can hold above the 50/144 four hout chart. As reviewed in the video, significant resistance now at the 50ema, will need to follow through to at least the 144ema before we see additional resistance. While upside open gaps seem to be a reliable short term target, it will be the combination of the Globex and intraday trend that will enable the market to lift higher. Weekly and monthly pictures remain downtrend.
Crude remains in a non-contested technical bearish trend. The only hopes at this point of moving back up into the 40’s would be on rumors coming true of production cuts. If then, open gaps above at 33.74., 36.71 and 48.74 will be in my scopes.
Index ETF’s seem to also have their work cut out for them as price action on the 50/144ema chart is at key resistance at the 50ema. The FXE, a great example for a breakout above the 144 is a prime example of what we are looking for in the US index futures. So watch for the reversal if we go up. Timing in GLD is overthinking and while the entry was some weeks back, another opportunity will arise.Watch the moving averages and my twitter posts for any change in trend.
Market cap leaders in tow with the rest of the indices, also showing some continued signs of weakness. Combined with fundamentals and what you believe to be a price of value based on your own criteria, watch for at least the technical cross of the T3 moving averages on a higher time frame and the four hour chart to put you in good position. While I do not look for intraday setups, using the T3 strategy is useful as a trading tool in looking for momentum in price action and remaining in the trend. Whether you go short or long in the market, wait for the highest probability when ALL charts are in sync.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
Trading Room Futures Index Focus of Next Week: YM
Video Link to Trading Room member Ed C.’s “Using Levels to Project Targets”
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
e-Manual available on teaching this trading strategy and live trading room/screenshare