Looking at the week behind 1 day @ a time…..
Good trading is always going back over the trading day and reviewing the setups that may or may not have worked out and what kept you in or perhaps took you out too early. Looking for the trend move and remaining in the trade is the objective. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Market Traded: ES (RTH)
Total: 19 setups; 492 Ticks
Stats: 2 setups, 38 ticks.
AM session with multiple entries to the short on a technically biased 50/144ema in the RED. Not that the setups were anything that would trend smoothly as price action was VERY choppy. Highest probability setups however did remain the highest with the 50/144ema in a Bearish Bias to the Fib Projection level.
Setup #1 Post Euro Close. ALL 4 charts in SYNC! Not enough to run and tap upper levels.
PM session Technical bias shift back to the bears….and drop it did.
Stats: 1 setups, 128 ticks.
Overnight session into US open clearly in the green with price action finding support at the 50 and 144 moving averages. Market open ran it up to only once again find support at the 144 and all upside after that.
Finding support at the 144ema and breakout back above the 50ma, with a signal on the range chart, long entry to the upside to the fib projector level. 1 contract off.
Sitting through the chop, 1st contract off, price action finding low support at the 144ema…good enough to keep me in. Target was the 96% projection and 2nd contract off. Using the 50/144ema as a guiding tool of market technical bias, gives me the mindset to give an edge to the probability that price action may just push higher. With 1 contract off and plenty of room for chop and a stop back at the entry, the runner is simply just that. A runner with the chance that it may even run higher and also be a no loss trade.
Stats: 2 setups, 125 ticks.
Housing data. Crude report. FOMC minutes. Enough to move the markets in any direction. 1st setup to the short I wanted to remove the first contract and see if a runner would move. With price action moving in TREND and eventually ALL 4 charts in sync, I gave the setup some room to chop by keeping the stop @ B/E +2. Thinking price may run up to the 50ema, and fade back down….not the best of calls. No loss, however, better trade management would have been to move down to a swing size position and if taken out, wait for another re-entry to the short which did occur but nothing to write home about. Can’t win all the TREND moves 🙂
Setup #2. Entry on the range chart with confirmation of price action breaking above the 50/144. While the re-entry had a higher probability with ALL 4 charts in sync, all index markets were in sync and trade management kept me in the setup. From this point forward, 1st contract off at the Fib projection level. Move stop to B/E +2 and allow for some chop and see if the market would pull higher.
Sure enough, the market pulled back and held to only push higher. Whether or not price would reach the next level, it was all trade management at this point until taken out at the swing size. Close to the final level but not enough to short run it by at least a point. What keeps you in the TREND? Using that 50/144ema chart on the right that has Bullish technical bias written all over it. At this point, regardless of Post FOMC price action, it wasn’t worth the risk of giving it all back.
Post FOMC surely gave the markets a while ride down. Reject at the 50ema and back down would have been a good trade with all its volatility to the downside fib projection and 96% projection level. Not for this Jedi but the PM show was great to watch. Some won big. Some got crushed.
Stats: 1 setup, 47 ticks. Scalps: 10 setups, 44 ticks.
Setup #1 to the short side after market open was choppy first 30m. Entry on range bar crossover and AD line downside. Tick count under -400 and price holding under the 50/144ema.
With the technical bias in the short, it was all about management to the downside at or near each swing size low.
The remainder of the session was spent utilizing the entry where trade management was up 6 ticks on 2 contracts and stop moved to -4 once the 6 tick target was reached. My thinking at this point was that the session appeared to be very choppy and as long as the setup was present, enter the trade in the hopes that a runner would go. If not, no loss trade. It also proved a point as seen in the last chart for today’s session.
Results: 8t, 5t, 4t, 5t, 2t, 2t, 2t, 2t, 2t Total: 32 ticks
Now to the point I was trying to make by all the scalps.
With 9 trades above, in a choppy market, which is better? To trade with the setup in hopes of a runner or to trade with an in/out setup? No scientific setup here however my hypothesis stands true. Noted by the choppiness on the market internals, the in/out setup rewarded me more ticks than 1 off at 6 ticks and then be taking out at -4. 12 ticks on 1 setup, versus 32 ticks on 9 setups. If I had simply gone in/out on all the 9 entries above at 6 ticks, that would have totaled 108 ticks. far better than the 32 ticks tallied.
Stats: 3 setups, 110 ticks. (1 flat trade)
A bit of chop from the market open soon opened with a long setup on crossover of the 50/144ema with ALL 4 charts in sync. Continued support at the 10ema and technical bias in the GREEN, it was merely upside trade management.
By the rules of trade management after tapping the fib projection level, stopped out. Price action broke the 10ema and at this point it was either out for the day or wait for the next setup.
After a second setup that I thought would go long and remained in quite some chop, I simply flattened out at zero. Setup #3 to the NVPOC from 1.14.16 after the breakout above the 50ema and HA bars in Trend. Content to exit the complete setup at the NVPOC as price action continued to chop at the highs of the session.
Trending markets. 50/144ema with a 10 or 20ema for short term support can be a useful tool to step back and guide you in your intraday setups. Whether you stay in for the long term, or re-enter along the way, there was no denying where the technical bias is. Two trending setups today that with the use of the chart above, had a higher probability of success.
…relentless was the word of the day on ALL 4 indices as price action just continued to climb. Yes, I exited about 15 points back however that was a trading decision that i was ok with and on any other given day, could of had disastrous outcome knowing how much chop can occur in a PM session. But no doubt, the TREND was ALL in the GREEN and offered any trader who wished to enter and utilize the same strategy would have gained ticks in the positive.
My 3 $ense Recap of the week on the ES:
Tough week with FOMC minutes, GDP and some big econ numbers. Truth is, ES market appears technically in limbo. While there are always ticks to be made on some nice intraday swings, we remain in a daily/weekly/monthly trend downside and the short term pic is neutral. Surely doesn’t do well for any long term positions. Daily gaps/open VPOC’s remain above and below – all viable targets on any given day. 1861.25; 1835 remains my lowest levels to be closed out….eventually. 1940 remains to be the 50% fib pullback on this high to low move from end of the year 2015. Fridays session appeared to be the breakout of the weeks consolidation,with it being the end of the month perhaps a contribution.
While the week on the ES was the longest I have spent on it in a very long time, I still duly respect those that trade it daily as it truly is a market for the masters and unfortunately attracts many of the novice traders. As a patient and disciplined trader, I wait for my setups in hope that the higher probability will end up being a long trending move instead of the 1-2 points which the ES is very good at taking out once it gets moving. This is not at all common for intraday and I remain diligent to continue to take less trades and longer setups. I will return to trading the ES in our trading room rotation of the market indices and perhaps the big picture of the market will have changed some by then.
Good Day, Good night and Good Trading.