T3 – Trading-The-Trend Market Recap & Outlook
The Market Big Picture
Good trading is always going back over the trading WEEK and taking a step back to see where the market is situated. This allows for a higher probability on an intraday setup knowing that overall market direction is in a particular TREND. It’s your patience and discipline that will continue to grow as a trader when you implement such tools.
Looking at the week behind…..
Welcome to 2016…Part Deux. Chops at the bottoms from last weeks price action continued lower this week closing out additional gaps and lows of 2015. With hopes of a rally on Tuesday was clearly negated as the market continued to move lower. Prompting me to respond to the article written here to the article back in November on closing the gap downside, questioning what many might want to know, is when do we move back upside? Clearly I have no clue, but as technical signs begin to shift in that direction on a larger time frame, I will begin to shift that way and upside open gaps. Till then, we still have some minor and unfinished business below.
Looking at the week ahead…..
With continued unfinished business being closed out to the downside, it makes for 50 more weeks of pure unknown but eventually the probability of moving back to the upside greater. My long positions will still thank me.
For now, it appears the NQ to have the greatest drop to still come. The SPY with support at the 200ma and all key indices at the lows from 2015 may kick a rally. Whether it is short lived or we find key support here has yet to be seen. I lean on the continued TREND downside as technically evident on my longer term charts with room for a rally at any time as well. Do we go seek out 50% of the moves off the lows from 2009 to the highs of 2015? In that case…we may just seek lower levels.
Look for the swing position charts (50-100 range; 4 hour) to be the first to change trend followed by the intraday 50/144ema on a 1 minute. Once the intraday and swing position is in trend to the upside, open gaps above will be closed and eventually the lower time frames will swing the larger time frames back to the upside.
Until then, always ready in both directions.
One Simple Strategy. ANY market. ANY chart. ANY time frame.
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