Missed a good trade!

Monday, June 17, 2013

Missed a good trade!

Well, it happens to the best of us. Better I miss it than I take  a loss in it. You ask why I didn’t take it?

Watch the video, view the supplemental charts and that should clarify why I sat on my keester and didn’t push the button.

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Charts

 

Market Indices

Market Indices

With the market poised on internals ($TICK, AD Line, Market Breadth) strong to the upside, any entry short was not in my radar today. ES/YM chopped it up at the 25m OR high for the good part of the session until the birds flew south and took the Russell with it. With two setups possible on the TF today, 1st one not in alignment with other markets and internals mixed was already a signal I was not liking.

Russell Internals

Russell Internals

Internals mixed on the $TICK, starting out high on all 3 major indicators only to drabble down. The 1 good entry of the day was supported by declining internals, but not all in the red, Sometimes a tough call to make.

Russell Big Pic

Russell Big Pic

With the Daily Pivot as the low hit of the day, Daily R1 and CAM H4 were the lines to break downside under the 25m Open range.

2 Setups Today

2 Setups Today

The first setup at post 1-hour and the second setup with less than 2 to go in the session. Setup #2 was the trade of the day.

Setup #1

Setup #1

Setup #1 looked the right entry with price action under 25m Open range on Heikin Ashi range chart and 5 minute bar. Two things would have held me back. Market internals which were too strong for any momentum move. Would have to enter with contracts off very quickly – not my particular style of trading. Second, EMA on the 5/34 crossed over but the 5 was the only line under the 80, while the 13/21 were just coming under. Not a sign of momentum. 

Setup #2

Setup #2

The trade of the day that I chose to not trade and missed. With market internals weakened but not in the red was a caution light for me and is what kept me out of the trade. Calling for an entry on a breakout below Daily R1 /Suri S1 and CAM H4, Heikin Ashi with ALL EMA crossover was the signal and it took. All the way down to the Daily/Weekly Pivot at 978.7. A nice 50~ tick move give or take a few.  What would have been the better scenario? All market internals in the red supporting the down move. Sometimes you can’t get what you want, so you learn from it. What I didn’t follow was the fact that the setup was clear as day, but I didn’t take into consideration that market internals were dropping enough and that was supporting the move instead of all of them deep in the red.

Fib Extension target lines up

Fib Extension target lines up

To make matters even more wishful, using the fib extension, another management tool…see where price went?

Why didn’t I take the trade?

I was asleep at the wheel! …..(and market internals in the green got the better of my mind)

Sure enough, it did turn up after hitting the full fib target/Daily and Weekly pivot to the 25m Open Range low.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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